Update - A Quieter Pattern Settles In...But Not Completely Quiet

After a quite bumpy storm pattern to finish December and 2012, we'll be taking a little break. A few systems still get close enough to put some snow in the realm of possibility.

Updates Below (most recent 8:00pm)

Good Wednesday morning to one and all...

Finally caught up on sleep a little bit after trying to catch the New Years, having family in town, and still maintaining my day-job ;-) Time to get back into the swing of things.

HPC - Surface Map - Wednesday Afternoon

Sunshine will eventually ride back in courtesy of high pressure, but it's not looking as complete a clear-out as we've had in other times. Notice that orange-ish line swinging through the Mississippi River valley. This is moisture starved now, but may be able to catch some later Thursday to help spring some lake-effect. The GFS and NAM models are on to this, but it's still not a grand thing.

GFS - Surface Map - Overnight THU/FRI NAM - Surface Map - Friday AM

At this point, we're talking about the chances of snow vs. no snow, rather than the discussion of "how much". In fact, this sort of scenario is more likely to just hit the favored lake-effect areas rather than the whole of the tri-state.

Temperatures will also dip quite cooler than we've been accustomed to, but by the same token it's been a gentler winter than in other years. Average highs for this time of year are about as cold as they'll get climate-wise, but still the lower 40s (we're not really in an arctic part of the world after all). The month of December saw average temperatures about 5-degrees above normal, but now it'll be a little different.

GFS - MaxTemps - Wednesday GFS - MaxTemps - Thursday GFS - MaxTemps - Friday

At or below-normal temperatures will keep the chill in town through the end of the week. But, as we get farther into January, some of the recent mid-range predictions have warmer air once again gumming up the snow-works.

6-10 Day Outlook - Temperature 6-10 Day Outlook - Precipitation

In the coldest time of year, it still is possible to have slightly above normal temperatures and still catch some snowflakes, but it certainly would be nicer for snow-lovers to have both the cold and the moisture front-and-center.

Climate indicators are still pushing us into a slight El-Nino posture, but the NAO "thumb on the scale" doesn't go negative until the end of the month. When that happens, we'll have to be on the lookout for deeper storm systems swinging up through the southern states. Just like we talked about in our Winter Weather Preview, we've always been pinning our hopes for lowland snowfall on the second-half of the season.

Current ENSO Forecast Current NAO Forecast

Update (8:00pm) - The cold air is definitely going to be pouring in tonight. As I've said before, on good radiational cooling nights, the dewpoint temperatures of the evening are often a good bet on what kind of morning temperatures we'll see in places that are permitted to radiate the best. Here are some of those numbers right now:

Estimated Dew Point Temperatures

Elevated sheltered valley areas like Elkins in West Virginia (or even more frigid a place like Glady) have already seen single digit temperatures on more than one occasion this year. Here it appears we'll get plenty of morning numbers in the teens, but hopefully just avoid the single digit numbers folks in central and northern Ohio saw yesterday morning. Regardless, it's a cold start to the day for sure.
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Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking

Accuweather Radar

From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image

Activity Overview Storm Outlook Watches Potential Watches Storm Reports
Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active Warnings
Current Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active NWS Warnings
Click For Larger Click For Interactive Radar Click For Larger Click For Larger

Have a great day everyone!

-B

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