Updates Below (most recent 8:00pm)
Good Wednesday morning to one and all...
Finally caught up on sleep a little bit after trying to catch the New Years, having family in town, and still maintaining my day-job ;-) Time to get back into the swing of things.
|HPC - Surface Map - Wednesday Afternoon|
Sunshine will eventually ride back in courtesy of high pressure, but it's not looking as complete a clear-out as we've had in other times. Notice that orange-ish line swinging through the Mississippi River valley. This is moisture starved now, but may be able to catch some later Thursday to help spring some lake-effect. The GFS and NAM models are on to this, but it's still not a grand thing.
|GFS - Surface Map - Overnight THU/FRI||NAM - Surface Map - Friday AM|
At this point, we're talking about the chances of snow vs. no snow, rather than the discussion of "how much". In fact, this sort of scenario is more likely to just hit the favored lake-effect areas rather than the whole of the tri-state.
Temperatures will also dip quite cooler than we've been accustomed to, but by the same token it's been a gentler winter than in other years. Average highs for this time of year are about as cold as they'll get climate-wise, but still the lower 40s (we're not really in an arctic part of the world after all). The month of December saw average temperatures about 5-degrees above normal, but now it'll be a little different.
|GFS - MaxTemps - Wednesday||GFS - MaxTemps - Thursday||GFS - MaxTemps - Friday|
At or below-normal temperatures will keep the chill in town through the end of the week. But, as we get farther into January, some of the recent mid-range predictions have warmer air once again gumming up the snow-works.
|6-10 Day Outlook - Temperature||6-10 Day Outlook - Precipitation|
In the coldest time of year, it still is possible to have slightly above normal temperatures and still catch some snowflakes, but it certainly would be nicer for snow-lovers to have both the cold and the moisture front-and-center.
Climate indicators are still pushing us into a slight El-Nino posture, but the NAO "thumb on the scale" doesn't go negative until the end of the month. When that happens, we'll have to be on the lookout for deeper storm systems swinging up through the southern states. Just like we talked about in our Winter Weather Preview, we've always been pinning our hopes for lowland snowfall on the second-half of the season.
|Current ENSO Forecast||Current NAO Forecast|
Update (8:00pm) - The cold air is definitely going to be pouring in tonight. As I've said before, on good radiational cooling nights, the dewpoint temperatures of the evening are often a good bet on what kind of morning temperatures we'll see in places that are permitted to radiate the best. Here are some of those numbers right now:
|Estimated Dew Point Temperatures|
Elevated sheltered valley areas like Elkins in West Virginia (or even more frigid a place like Glady) have already seen single digit temperatures on more than one occasion this year. Here it appears we'll get plenty of morning numbers in the teens, but hopefully just avoid the single digit numbers folks in central and northern Ohio saw yesterday morning. Regardless, it's a cold start to the day for sure.
|Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking||
From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image
|Activity Overview||Storm Outlook||Watches||Potential Watches||Storm Reports|
|Temperatures||HD Doppler Radar||Estimated Rainfall||Active Warnings|
|Click For Larger||Click For Interactive Radar||Click For Larger||Click For Larger|
Have a great day everyone!