A break for Summer, but colder weather gets close by the weekend

Another up-and-down week ahead, though mostly "up". Temperatures make a run at 80-degrees on a few different days, as rain stays on the edges for a while.

Welcome back to Monday!

A nice day of sunshine greets you ride back in to work and school. A little chill in the air to start the day, but the theme of the work-week weather-wise will be "a trip back in time". Summer returns to the area-- look at these maps:

GFS - Max Temps - Monday GFS - Max Temps - Tuesday GFS - Max Temps - Wednesday

So, how is it possible that we could be getting back toward 80+ after such a cold start to the weekend (highs in the 50s on Saturday)? An amplified jetstream that brings deep troughs can also provide for pronounced ridges-- and one such ridge is building into the eastern-half of the country this week.

GFS - 500mb Chart - Wednesday PM

I often show this map for "big picture" weather happenings, and in this case I want you to ignore the reds and blues on there. Just concentrate on the black lines. A good approximator for temperature can sometimes be these height lines, and a ridge (in the east) indicates warm dry air, and the trough out west indicates the arrival of colder air and a storm system. Notice in the center the numbers "570" and "582". In the summertime we can just lop off the "5" and use the remaining numbers for a ball-park value for air temperature at the surface. In our case, it will work out moderately well this week.  Get ready to enjoy several days of above-normal temperatures (exactly what we showed you on the long-range models from last Monday). This ridge continues to build right through the end of the week, where a storm system finally approaches.

HPC - 5 Day Rainfall Projection

Rainfall gets close to our Ohio counties, though the ridge works well (of course with high pressure in tandem at the surface) to keep pushing things north of us. Nevertheless, if there is any rainfall, it would be up that way.

With this weekend storm getting its act together, there is a bit of a disagreement in what's going to happen, but since the alternatives are quite interesting, we might as well entertain two fo the options...

GFS - Saturday Evening CMC - Saturday Evening

The GFS actually had a more extreme solution yesterday for this same event, but has since backed off. As I've said before, these extreme scenarios in longer-range periods are fun to look at, but rarely verify-- and any initial trend away from such solutions is usually the right way to go. However, the Canadian forecast model (on the right) not only has a much deeper plunge of colder air, but it would be serious enough to throw snowflakes on the back end of this system as it comes through (even our area), though the GFS is more conservatively keeping the colder air locked up to the north, where it typically resides. At this point, don't get your hopes up if you're a snow-lover, but after such a warm week perhaps we're owed :-)

In the longest range, it appears no matter which system moves through this coming weekend, the cold air eventually plunges back in again for a while. Check out the trends for the week beyond...

6-10 Day Outlook - Temperature 6-10 Day Outlook - Precipitation

Wetter than normal and colder than normal..? You know all the winter weather fans do love that! We'll just have to see...

Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking

Accuweather Radar

From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image

Activity Overview Storm Outlook Watches Potential Watches Storm Reports
Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active Warnings
Current Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active NWS Warnings
Click For Larger Click For Interactive Radar Click For Larger Click For Larger

Have a great day everyone!


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