A break in the action-- enjoy it while it lasts

Our wet weather has finally let up, giving us a shot at a completely dry day. It might as well be one for yard-work though, as rain looks to return again soon.

Sunday SUNDAY Sunday!

We'll start the day off with a departing system that kept the showers lingering here and there in parts of West Virginia, but because of all the low-level moisture (and water on the ground) we'll scare up a fair bit of fog and clouds until the sun can get up and burn it off:

NAM - Humidity By Altitude - Sunday AM NAM - Cloud Cover - Sunday AM

Notice the increased humidity at the lowest layers of the atmosphere (900mb) and the corresponding map of cloud cover showing the early clouds. It won't be bad for everyone, as folks in Ohio may still be able to catch a glimpse of the "Super Moon" (largest/brightest looking moon in 2012). As we work into the day today, the rising Sun will clear out the clouds for most of us-- but those heading to the mountains may want to figure on a popping shower or two. The wind-flow will be up-slope, always good to wring out a few clouds and such, much like what would happen in the winter time.

We'll probably get a good chunk of Monday in under dry skies as well, but in the afternoon we'll be in borrowed time before the next system comes in. Here's how it looks on the GFS:

GFS - Monday PM GFS - Wednesday AM

And yes, I'd expect to have those WSAZ umbrellas out most of the day Tuesday ;-)

We'll be on the lookout for more thunderstorms too, as a fair amount of moisture and instability will be present:

NAM - Lifted Index - Tuesday PM HPC - Total Rainfall

In meteorology, bouyancy is represented mathmatically by negative numbers, so the lower the "lifted index" numbers are, the more likely we'll see the sort of vertical air motion that will push cloud heights higher and get the thunder rolling.

You can see it in the GFS model image earlier for Wednesday AM, and we did talk about this yesterday, but cooler weather is set to fill in behind this front. It will be good enough to get us into the 'below-normal' category:

GFS - Max Temps - Tuesday GFS - Max Temps - Wednesday GFS - Max Temps - Thursday

Such is life, I guess. :-)

A Heads-Up

I know a lot of you have been asking for a "Summer season forecast" of sorts... Well, I've got a few things to say on it (and about it), so stay tuned for that. I was thinking about making it a "tangent" to this very blog post no less, but I think it's probably better to make it its own post. That way everyone (including me) will be able to find it better ;-)

Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking

Accuweather Radar

Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active Warnings
Current Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active NWS Warnings
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Have a great day everyone!


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