Update (10:30am Friday) - I wanted to add a quick update here instead of a full entry, which is coming, so as to highlight the step in the forecast below where we are darting back and forth across the rain/snow line. This is in response to precipitation intensity and vertical air motion, much like what we saw a couple of days ago. However, this is also a tamer event where there isn't as much worry for rapid accumulations during the PM Commute.
However, most of the action is not widespread right now, confined to a narrow but exapanding band evidenced on Doppler below. As we go into the afternoon, that cold push of air arrives, and we'll be talking about all snow from there on out. Accumulations in the lowlands will range from a coating to 1", but that amount will fade during any lull and most likely stay off the paved roads. The ridges around the Kanwha Valley and points west will see that little snow amount stick, but successive periods of snow (that are coming) won't necessarily stack on top of one another. For the WV mountains and the higher ski peaks, expect 1-2" with each wave of snow showers, totalling 2-4"+ (ski slopes probably over 6"). The best times as it stands now for snow bands are later today, Saturday afternoon, and Saturday overnight.
Feel free to report any changeovers or accumulations, etc. at the bottom of this page. Questions/comments are welcome too :-)
Happy Valentine's Day!
While some bring flowers, and others bring chocolate, who's going to bring sunshine? I guess I'll do it-- perhaps I can get away with that being my 'gift' (yeah, right). :-)
The Sun we do see today comes courtesy of a weak area of ridging between two weather systems, shown here on the HPC Surface map:
|HPC - Surface Map - Thursday|
The ridge is drawn in the yellow, and connects the two weak areas of high pressure. The winds will be out of the southwest during the day, granting us some warmth in addition to the returning sunshine.
Highs today may even exceed 50° in some areas, but from there on out that colder air filters in. Here's how the GFS is showing the progression:
|GFS - Max Temps Thursday||GFS - Max Temps Friday||GFS - Max Temps Saturday|
Perhaps a stroll in the park is in order this afternoon-- but best get out the winter coats again by the weekend. We'll also be talking the return of snowfall.
First up will be Friday afternoon, but this figures to be more of a rain/snow mix at this point:
|NAM - Friday Afternoon||NAM - Precipitation Type - Friday Afternoon|
It is possible that we could have another dynamic cooling event on our hands similar to yesterday's, but so far it's figuring to be tamer.
A straight snow is more likely this weekend, particularly on Saturday. Here's how the GFS covers it:
|GFS - Saturday Afternoon||GFS - Sunday Morning|
Initially our lake-enhanced event will have all the Great Lakes participating, and eventually on Sunday we'll be down to just Erie (with a side of Huron and Ontario). Given the rush of colder air, high temperatures will be struggling just to get back to freezing. This means there's going to be a fluffy-factor to apply to any snow we get.
We'll take another look at this soon-- but for now, enjoy the time you have with your Valentine. I'll try to do the same, or else I'm dead meat! ;-)
|Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking||
From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image
|Activity Overview||Storm Outlook||Watches||Potential Watches||Storm Reports|
|Temperatures||HD Doppler Radar||Estimated Rainfall||Active Warnings|
|Click For Larger||Click For Interactive Radar||Click For Larger||Click For Larger|
Have a great day everyone!