Wednesday Update - I figured it'd be best to get this update in here, since the explanation of the next two days of weather is still looking good.
Have a look at the 700mb charts again. Notice how the northern part of WV/OH are just outside that strip of dry air..? Well, that circulation upon actual verification is a little wider than the model had forecast...just slightly. We're seeing cloud cover hanging tough north of I-64 this morning, and light snow just across the river in Ohio and then of course their WV counterparts. However, farther south comes the clearing skies.
After starting off Monday in the teens, we had yesterday in the 40s. Now, today is in the 20s again. At least tomorrow will be similar to today's morning weather experience, so we'll have two in a row for a change (though unfortunately they're both going to be cold days).
Friday morning may well end up a lot like yesterday, with showers arriving, and a little sleet/ice thrown in where the air remains stubbornly cold enough to start.
|NAM - Precipitation Type - Friday Morning||NAM - Precipitation Type - Friday Morning|
Oh, and that coastal storm for this weekend... It is looking a little more like a miss for us. But we'll take a look at it again soon. :-)
A good Tuesday morning to you all.
We start the day off with the showers coming in. We talked about that front coming in during yesterday's blog post, and the timing is still on schedule. With the temperatures diving out ahead of the moisture, the mountain valleys to our east will have enough cold air to sustain some icing, sleet, and even light snowfall.
|NAM - Tuesday Morning||NAM - Tuesday Afternoon|
This is the reason for the Winter Weather Advisories during the morning hours (see the watch/warning map below). If you are going to be traveling on I-68 east or I-64 east of Beckley, this should be a travel concern for you. The rest of us will just have a chilly, annoying start to the day at the bus stop or the walk across the parking lot into work. The afternoon holds some promise for breaking clouds, but just remember it comes with colder air as well; perhaps that's a push of sorts ;-)
Dry air filters in quickly behind this front, allowing for sunshine to return and stick around for Wednesday and parts of Thursday. The GFS is showing a good dry slot at cloud level:
|GFS - 700mb Chart - Wednesday Afternoon||GFS - 700mb Chart - Thursday Afternoon|
The brown/orange (raw umber?) color indicates relative humidity levels less than 10% at cloud level (~10,000ft). It does not appear there will be a whole lot of lake influence in this pattern given its speed and its orientation just to the west of the water. Sunshine, or at least dry conditions, should carry us for a while.
We're still tracking another weather-maker at the end of the week. Friday is primarily a rain maker, but the weekend could get a little interesting. There's yet another coastal Nor'easter brewing on the models. As it stands now, it's a (yet another) miss for us, and a hit for New England, but these things always bear watching; one jog to the left, a few milibars stronger, and we'd be talking snowfall.
|GFS - Sunday Morning|
So far, I wouldn't hold out too much hope, but at least it's something :-)
|Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking||
From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image
|Activity Overview||Storm Outlook||Watches||Potential Watches||Storm Reports|
|Temperatures||HD Doppler Radar||Estimated Rainfall||Active Warnings|
|Click For Larger||Click For Interactive Radar||Click For Larger||Click For Larger|
Have a great day everyone!