A happy Tuesday to one and all.
Today's weather continues a pattern that is quite typical of a 'normal' summer (and not like the summer we've been having). Having gone through a weak area of high pressure yesterday (note how it wasn't powerful enough to prevent the pop-up showers we discussed), we'll now be looking at a weak area of low pressure coming through today.
Here's the surface map look for today from HPC:
|HPC - Tuesday PM|
Notice how there are three areas of low pressure all near one another with us sandwiched in the middle. You might as well consider the entire area a weak low pressure region. A typical decent low would be something like 1000mb or less, not 1008 or 1012 like we see here. Also, that 1015 area of high pressure is pretty lame as well (normally we like a 1024 or 1028mb system). It looks like we'll have to wait for autumn for something like that. Nevertheless, there are certainly other tools at our disposal to analyze the atmosphere for shower potential. Notice how the above map does want to throw showers our way.
|NAM - 500mb Chart - Tuesday PM||NAM - Surface Chart - Tuesday PM|
Now, on the left-hand map, we do see a decent vorticity couplet (positive is in the red, negative is in the purple). This reflects well at the surface by generating showers in the afternoon in Ohio, and then they will plod across West Virginia and Kentucky in loosely organized bits into early Wednesday.
The positive/negative vorticity couplet is called a 'short-wave' and it typically is looked to for enhancing surface features as it will rotate around the base of the 500mb trough (note how it's not there yet). When it finally does come around, it will make the surface front its strongest and start to concentrate precipitation. This is something that will happen oodles of times during the winter and is an important part of forecasting.
Here's how it plays out on the ground with rainfall:
|HPC - Rainfall Projection - Tuesday thru Wednesday|
It's important to mention that this map smoothes out all the peaks and valleys and dips and bumps-- Some of us will be getting more in a thunderstorm while others may get barely grazed. A point I wanted to make is that there will be an enhanced bulls-eye of rainfall right off the Carolina coast during the second-half of this period tied directly to the enhancement that the short-wave provides rotating around the base of the mid-level trough.
(Boy, do I apologize for the wonkiness of this post...I should probably stop writing these so late at night) ;-)
Huntington stands at 7.74" of rain for the month, while Charleston is at 7.60", and Parkersburg is at 3.65". Amazing what well placed thunderstorms can do to hit and miss in a rain gauge, eh? Anyway, it'll be close, but Huntington probably will finish just shy of 8" for the month unless we hear some thunder with any shower overhead.
After early Wednesday, we'll be getting back to mid-summer form with sunshine returning and highs itching to get to 90. But we'll talk about that tomorrow, along with the next prospects of severe weather.
|Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking||
From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image
|Activity Overview||Storm Outlook||Watches||Potential Watches||Storm Reports|
|Temperatures||HD Doppler Radar||Estimated Rainfall||Active Warnings|
|Click For Larger||Click For Interactive Radar||Click For Larger||Click For Larger|
Have a great day everyone!
+ Ashland, KY
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+ Huntington, WV
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