A mainly dry week ahead, but a few isolated showers to be had

Despite the sunshine for many hours of the day today and tomorrow, there will be a few pop-up showers on the map in the afternoon. Temperatures start off below-normal, and gently rise to the upper 80s by the end of the week.

Good Monday morning everyone!

We start off with the dissipating fog, and get back to sunshine. By this afternoon, the weather picture gets a little 'complicated' though the manifestation to you will be just some pop-up clouds and isolated showers. Here's what's going on, and it bears explanation:

NAM - 500mb Chart - Monday PM GFS - 500mb Chart - Monday PM

These are both upper-air charts, and we're looking at two different things showing up consistently in both models: the trough in the air flow (the yellow line) indicating cooler air dropping in aloft; and a series of vorticity maximums (the blue boxes indicating the "X"s) following along this dip in the air flow.

As we've said before in this blog, in order to get precipitation, you need rising air. Absent any forcing of air (for example up a mountain), the lifting mechanism would have to put warm air below with cold air above. Like the rising of a hot air balloon, progressively colder air aloft makes it a lot easier. So we look for either things that make the air hotter at the surface, or colder aloft (or both). Today's weather is about the cold pool of air aloft. These two lobes of vorticity will rotate through our region during the afternoon hours, timed very well to any surface heating that comes in the sunshine before-hand. Despite the quiet start to the day, the afternoon should deteriorate at least a little bit into some puffy cumulus clouds, and isolated showers. The zany thing about it all is that if the air aloft is cold enough we could squeeze out some pea-sized hail-- not a danger but more of a novelty.

NAM - Monday PM NAM - Tuesday PM

Tuesday looks more impressive than this afternoon, but this afternoon looked more impressive in earlier model runs. This can be something to file in the back of the mind if today's showers do not materialize.

Beyond Tuesday, high pressure comes in and we'll hit a dry spell that should take us through to the weekend. There will be a few opportunities here to scare up some afternoon showers, but these should stay primarily in the mountains to our south and east.

HPC - 5Day Rainfall Projections - Through Friday PM

Expect a lot of sunshine, and therefore moderating temperatures. Today will hang out near 80, but we figure to be near 90 by the end of the week.

Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking

Accuweather Radar

From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image

Activity Overview Storm Outlook Watches Potential Watches Storm Reports
Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active Warnings
Current Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active NWS Warnings
Click For Larger Click For Interactive Radar Click For Larger Click For Larger

Have a great day everyone!


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