A mild day begins another active week

Several storm systems are lining up to waltz through the Ohio Valley in the coming days. It's still a little spread out, but the up-and-down pattern will provide an inhale-exhale kind of forecast

Greetings all! It's back to Monday!

Hopefully all of you got some rest.

As we gaze upon this week's weather, it appears we're going to continue the unsettled weather pattern of the week before.

Here's how our map looks today:

HPC - Surface Map - Monday

Warm air will ride in today, out ahead of our next storm system that is entering the Ohio Valley. Showers will hold off until early Tuesday, but expect to get out the umbrellas for the day. There's a chance at the outset there could be a little freezing drizzle mixed in, but don't count on this being significant were we are; but the showers will be chilly. Notice (above) that we have a departing area of high pressure followed by a decent trough of low pressure, with another ridge of high pressure working in right after it.

It is possible to eek out a flurry or two off the back end of the storm system once it departs, but the history this year has not been good for that to be too fruitful.

NAM - Tuesday Morning NAM - Tuesday Afternoon

It's a relatively quick-sweeper as far as things like this have gone for us this year. Most of the moisture is gone by the time the cold air returns to the region, but it will be a bit of a roller-coaster ride from one day to the next.

A high-amplitude upper-level pattern is responsible for all of this. The good news is that we can chalk up some sunshine in between events. Here's what the GFS is showing regarding the weather pattern aloft:

GFS - 500mb Chart - Monday Afternoon

Pay no specific attention to what the yellow and blue lines look like, they aren't 'meteorological' in nature...I'm just using them to describe where different ridges and troughs exist in the upper air pattern. This air flow is called a 'meridional' flow, which is the opposite of a 'zonal' flow. What we see here is a concentration of storm energy into bunches, with clearing and sunshine in between. The first one comes in Tuesday, and then another one early on Friday.

GFS - Friday Morning

...and it also looks to be mainly a rain maker. If you want snow around here, you had better find a way to get to the dashed line side of that big black line on the map. It's only going to get harder going forward, but there's always still that chance. Our luck usually runs out after the first week or two in March.

6-10 Day Outlook - Temperature 6-10 Day Outlook - Precipitation

Chances are good for a nice plunge of cold air entering the US at the end of the month, but on the wrong side of the country. We'll have to see if it stays in tact to make the trip eastward or not to start the month of March.

Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking

Accuweather Radar

From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image

Activity Overview Storm Outlook Watches Potential Watches Storm Reports
Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active Warnings
Current Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active NWS Warnings
Click For Larger Click For Interactive Radar Click For Larger Click For Larger

Have a great day everyone!

-B

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