A one-two punch on the way... but can we dodge in time?

After another great day Friday, clouds will already stream in ahead for Saturday showers. However, an even larger storm lurks for the beginning of next week.

Friday is finally here!

Lots going on this weekend, and a lot to demand nice weather. The good news is that today will be quite amenable to outdoor activities, with plenty of sunshine and warm weather. But, as we've been discussing, a big change awaits soon after. By the close of the day Friday a first shot storm system moves in with some showers for Saturday. Here's how the models are handing it:

WRF - Saturday 2am GFS - Saturday 2am

We should be able to get the whole day in today, but anyone with late-night ideas might think about bringing the umbrella. Colder air will be filtering in behind the passage of this system, and it is this that will help generate the second (and more important) "punch" of our weather. As this cold air digs in, we'll see a 20-degree drop in high temperatures from one day to the next (or thereabouts):

GFS - Max Temps - Friday GFS - Max Temps - Saturday

Now...here's where it gets interesting. Later on in the weekend, a new storm develops in the Gulf of Mexico along this same line (now pushed east to the coast) and then mobilizes a ton of storm energy to rapidly develop as it heads up the eastern seaboard Monday. There is some discrepancy between the two major models that handle mid-to-long range weather though, and it will mean everything as to what our weather will be like:

GFS - Surface Map - Monday AM Euro - Surface Map - Monday AM
GFS - Precipitation / 850mb Temps - Monday AM Euro - 850mb Humidity-Temps  - Monday AM

Okay...a lot of maps here (hopefully y'all like maps) ... I think it's important to talk about the two different scenarios. The one thing that both models are calling for is that temperatures will be well below normal early next week. We'll be seeing 30s for lows and 50s for highs (even colder in the mountains). The GFS wants to keep the storm system in New England, channeling heavy precipitation and inland mountain snows to the area in a very out-of-place weather scenario. For our area, we instead may even sneak in some sunshine with the colder temperatures. The Euro model however (traditionally more accurate in mid-long range), has us still in line for cold showers Monday morning with the storm much stronger and heading inland around the New York City area. In this scenario, the WV mountains will be seeing snow showers-- not completely unprecedented but certainly another notch in the belt of quite a crazy two month period of weather. I suspect the eventual scenario will converge on a New England solution that leaves us on the low end of the precipitation, but still gives us the cold. It is possible that the eastern WV mountains get snow flakes out of it, but it will be up in New England that the headlines will be made. In the end, I'd consider that a 'dodge', even though we may once again have to think about protecting the plants again several mornings next week when the cold lingers around.

HPC - First Event (Saturday) HPC - Second Event (Sun - Tues)

The first round of rain on Saturday is actually quite manageable, so that could be a good sign for folks heading out to the big parade down at Hillbilly Days. The next storm looks to be a powerful one, but moreso for New England. Nevertheless, there's still that shot at chilly rain (and mountain flakes). As stated before, we're still a ways away from that event, and a lot can change between now and then. It is quite interesting that some of this looming ominousness has stayed in the models thus far. This may mean lots of blog updates :-)

Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking

Accuweather Radar

Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active Warnings
Current Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active NWS Warnings
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Have a great day everyone!

-B

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