A summer squeeze keeps the forecast tight for the tri-state

High pressure continues to exert its influence over the northern Ohio Valley, and another one flexes muscle off the Carolina coast. Our stalled out boundary continues to flounder in the south, which sets up the opportunity for quite a diverse weather experience from one place to the next.

Good Wednesday morning everyone! Half-way home on this week :-)

Today's weather starts with the similar pattern we saw yesterday, with our frontal boundary still stalled out in the Carolinas and southern Virginia. Scattered showers should begin to leak up into the mountains this afternoon, but more than likely what we'll get will be 'diurnally' driven. That means it will flare up with the prime heating hours of the day. Picture a start that has a bit of patchy fog in it, followed by partly sunny skies, and then moving on to the scattered storms. Here's the WRF model on this:

WRF - Wednesday PM WRF - Thursday PM

High pressure is still working hard to keep the northern parts of our area in the sunshine, while folks south of I-64 will be seeing those clouds and showers off in the distance. It still looks like a decent-enough, especially for those heading out to the Lawrence County Fair in Proctorville. In this weather scenario, being north and west offers the best shot for sunshine (where others bring rain here first).

Another interesting element to these maps is the increase of rainfall to the west of West Virginia rather than seeing it move in locally. The meteorology that would permit this to happen would be a strengthening "Bermuda High" just offshore. That can certainly take incoming low pressure systems and hang'em up. I'm a little skeptical of it missing us as with such green information compared to the prior model runs, but this situation can change too (like it wants to right now). Notice the projections now by HPC regarding this week's rain:

HPC - Rainfall Projections - Ending Sunday

It still looks like some above-average garden watering for us later in the week, but the chances are now rising for showers to sneak up through the Ohio River and bother Kentucky more than the rest. If this happens, cooler high temperatures make more sense than an 88 or 89 (though since the best risk for showers comes in the afternoon, we still have several hours of heating before things pop.

Here are the GFS numbers for the next few days. And, seconding the motion, the GFS has also indicated cooler temperatures (most likely in response to the clouds/showers):

GFS - Max Temps - Wednesday GFS - Max Temps - Thursday GFS - Max Temps - Friday

Just like today, if the rain bug misses us, more than likely we'll make it into the upper 80s-- simply too much heat with the normal mid-July sunshine. But so far, the idea is that you should be packing your umbrella once we get to Thursday night and Friday. We'll keep an eye on it, because rain may just stick around as an outside threat into next week (or until something new comes by to kick out this stalled boundary).

Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking

Accuweather Radar

From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image

Activity Overview Storm Outlook Watches Potential Watches Storm Reports
Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active Warnings
Current Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active NWS Warnings
Click For Larger Click For Interactive Radar Click For Larger Click For Larger

Have a great day everyone!


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