It's Thursday... Won't be long now until the weekend!
...Albeit a little bit of a downer coming up. I know there's a few of you out there that don't like snow too much, but the lion-share of my blog-watchers near demand a healthy dumping of the white stuff. Since we get closer to Christmas with each passing day, I find myself in that camp these days ;-)
Well, the first half of this forecast is something I wish we could ignore, but lets at least get it out of the way quickly...
|HPC - Surface Map - Thursday PM|
We start off the day with sunshine, though clouds are seeping northward, aided by retreating high pressure and a stalled-out boundary to the south. There's a front approaching from the west, but it doesn't make it in town just yet. As a result, I'm not as concerned about showers disrupting the day, though folks in southern KY may sneak a shower in late in the day. It's Friday and the weekend that has those umbrellas out.
|NAM - Friday Morning||NAM - Friday Evening||NAM - Saturday Afternoon|
As we've been talking about in the past few days, the models are still favoring the northern-half of the area for the bulk of the showers, at least until Saturday. This makes for a tricky forecast, because the temperatures will be in the 60s where the rain misses, and stuck in the 50s otherwise. Also, there may be a drastically different experience between those who are humid but rain-free and those getting soaked. Unfortunately that means some are still able to tee it up for that get-it-while-it-lasts December golf, and others who work outside for a living may staring at another lost day.
Overall, this is the kind of rain we'll be looking at from the long-duration system:
|HPC - 5 Day Rainfall Projection|
There was even talk at the National Weather Service about issuing Flood Watches in conjunction with this system for the northern areas. We'll have to see about that, because of the long-form nature of the storm the rain may not get intense enough (and we can certainly take some rain given the still-dry ground). Nevertheless, it's a good soaking for sections of Ohio.
Okay okay... I know everyone is interested in the prospects for snow early next week. So let's talk about it. The models are gelling on a solution, which is nice to see, even this far out:
|GFS - Monday Night||CMC - Monday Night||ECMWF - Surface Map - Tuesday AM|
I've included the surface map from the Euro to demonstrate the low-pressure center that will be rapidly intensifying as it makes its way up the Hudson and into Canada. The opportunity for snow will come on the back-side of this storm, and will involve that always-touchy alignment of falling temperature and departing moisture. The ski slopes will have less to worry about because of their magnet-like attractive qualities to "Lake-Effect" snow.
It's too soon to peg how much snow might be coming from this, but if we can get into the bluer shades of precipitation rates along with a temperatures between -4 and -8 C at the 850mb level (those dashed lines behind the thick black line representing 0 C), we'll be looking good for flakes. I personally prefer to reel this thing to within the NAM's range (84hours) before I start putting together my own snow maps. We all know by now that the models can also destroy this thing and turn it into something unwintry, but the crazy warmth of the beginning of the month may help us just because of the law of averages.
Let's hope that works better than Murphy's Law :-)
|Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking||
From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image
|Activity Overview||Storm Outlook||Watches||Potential Watches||Storm Reports|
|Temperatures||HD Doppler Radar||Estimated Rainfall||Active Warnings|
|Click For Larger||Click For Interactive Radar||Click For Larger||Click For Larger|
Have a great day everyone!