Good Sunday to you all...
Congratulations to the folks in the mountains that got enough snow to keep it around to Christmas (so long as they wanted it). Most of us did get a piece, but it's not going to be enough for a lot of us. Temperatures are on the up-swing, and that will put the next system in the rain category.
|HPC - Surface Map - Monday Morning|
Initially, there could be some freezing drizzle in the snow-covered mountain areas early Monday, but primarily we'll be seeing rain as the warmer air streams in from the south.
|NAM - Christmas Eve||NAM - Christmas Morning|
...Not the kind of weather you want to see on Christmas (well, unless you live up there in New England). This storm system is rather weak and quick moving, so by the time the kids are done taking down their stockings we'll be back to normal.
However, there's another storm lurking beyond this one, and it's much stronger.
|NAM - Wednesday Midday||GFS - Wednesday Night||CMC - Wednesday Night|
The timing isn't that big of a deal, even though the NAM is a little quicker than the others. The track does make a big difference. The yellow arrow indicates how the storm is modeled to move through between Wednesday night and Thursday. The Canadian model has the most southerly storm track, and hence the best prospects for snowfall. Unfortunately, it's my least favorite model, and I'm much more in tune with the representation on the GFS. However, this still offers up the possibility for some wrap-around snow Thursday after the initial burst of snow-melting rain and warmth comes through before-hand.
|GFS - Projected Snowfall|
The heaviest snows track north and east of the low, but the WV mountains get a little extra due to the lake-effect that shows up on the wrap-around. With these initial broad-brush snowfall projections, keep in mind that the model smears them around a little bit due to the poor terrain resolution. Figure on the snowfall being more concentrated in the mountains (kind of like what we just had). However, there's still plenty of time to keep an eye on it.
Unfortunately though, it looks like Santa is going to need some windshield wipers more than the snow scraper for our area this year ;-)
Update (6:30am) - The National Weather Service has issued a "Freezing Rain Advisory" for parts of our area north of I-64 and the Ohio River. This is definitely no joke on the roadways if indeed it comes to fruition, though the truly treacherous stuff is most likely out of our area to the north and east. Nevertheless, if your car thermometer registers a temperature less than 30-degrees and you start seeing rain, be VERY careful when driving-- perhaps even consider delaying until the temperature warms up, because they will.
Here's a little bit more on how freezing rain occurs if you are interested.
(Click on the map for a larger one) ... The purple line farthest south represents temperatures at the freezing mark, while the ones above it represent the "critical" values at various levels aloft that represent rain vs. snow type temperatures. The problem zone is when you have temperatures below freezing at the surface but much warmer than that aloft (which on this map above we've got such a scenario from Route 50 through to I-68). Rain would initially be the thing falling, but then when it gets right to the surface, the sub-freezing temperatures would force the rain drops to freeze on contact. Yuck.
As the moisture rides up to the north and east, once it hits the sub-freezing temperatures in the north and the WV mountain valleys, it will turn into "freezing" rain. Be advised. These problems will exist only until local temperatures moderate above freezing, whereupon we'll be back to just a chilly rain.
|Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking||
From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image
|Activity Overview||Storm Outlook||Watches||Potential Watches||Storm Reports|
|Temperatures||HD Doppler Radar||Estimated Rainfall||Active Warnings|
|Click For Larger||Click For Interactive Radar||Click For Larger||Click For Larger|
Have a great day everyone!