WSAZ - Blogs - Brandon Butcher

Active pattern continues -- Rain, snow, and thunder

More up and down weather for the tri-state. This time around, it's the strongest system of the bunch coming through. Oh, and you should probably add 'wind' to the above list...

Welcome to Monday, and a rather dreary one at that...

We certainly had a wild weather weekend, going from temperatures above 70 on Saturday to accumulating snow on Sunday. The snow fell in a small west to east ribbon from about I-64 northward toward US Route-50 in interior Ohio and West Virginia. The big winner was up around Carver Ridge in Ohio with about 5" of wet snow.

The weather map stays active today, perhaps even moreso depending on your perspective. Our strongest wave of low pressure comes through today-- well, strongest relatively speaking to the ripples that have been scurrying through the past few days.

HPC - Surface Map - Monday

The rain-snow line is still close to the area, though at least with this first batch the rain should be able to take over. Only the high WV mountain valleys to the east may manage to get some sleet/ice/snow at the outset.

At dawn this morning, we should be in a relative lull, as the air dries out via strong down-sloping winds from the Appalachians. But, the cold front itself is still pretty active, and will be able to focus a lot of moisture when it gets here. Here's how the NAM is covering it:

NAM - Monday Morning NAM - Monday Afternoon

Both the dry slot near the Big Sandy and the cold air damming in the east WV mountains are showing up well here. By the afternoon, the frontal line comes through. This does have the ability to whip up some winds and thunder as well. The Storm Prediction Center has us in the 'Slight Risk' category (yeah, tis the season to start those thoughts back up again). Here's the breakdown...

SPC - Hail Threat SPC - Wind Threat SPC - Tornado Threat

Thunderstorms with gusty winds are the main threat, with most risks for hail focused to our south. This will only arrive with that frontal line, so you can track that on the radars below. This system will be riding through with a decent amount of moisture though, so the National Weather Service has placed many of our counties under a flood watch too (why not, right?)

HAS Precipitation Forecast HPC Precipitation Forecast

Since many of the same folks that got it yesterday are getting it with this one as well, we'll be watching the streams and creeks along the Ohio River. As I type this, here's the latest Watches and Warnings from the National Weather Service:

These should also be updating in the tracking maps below. Notice the wintry warnings and advisories are still around on this list. Things continue to be interesting once the back line of showers and storms pass through. Temperatures nose-dive again and we'll be back to watching for snow showers. There will probably be a few early Tuesday, but temperatures stay down enough to spit out a few more on Wednesday. Here's how the NAM is breaking down precipitation type:

NAM - Wednesday Mid-Day NAM - Wednesday Evening

Once we pass Saint Patrick's Day (in my opinion), any snowfall becomes 'interesting', as we're beyond the typical window for expecting that sort of thing-- but yes, it certainly can and does happen here and there over the years. And, given how the mid-range models are characterizing our temperatures and precipitation, this may well be an active early spring for seeing snowfall events.

6-10 Day Outlook - Temperature 6-10 Day Outlook - Precipitation

This includes early next week, where another southern-stream system may make it interesting around here. But this post has become pretty long, so we can save that for another day. Be sure to check back on the Interactive Radar to keep an eye on those showers and storms that will come through today. A healthy dose of rainfall ontop of a melting wet snowpack from yesterday is a muddy combination.

Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking

Accuweather Radar

From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image

Activity Overview Storm Outlook Watches Potential Watches Storm Reports
Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active Warnings
Current Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active NWS Warnings
Click For Larger Click For Interactive Radar Click For Larger Click For Larger

Have a great day everyone!

-B

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