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11/6 Update - After this next storm... A pattern break

Our coastal storm mechanics continue to take shape, but so does the likelihood of a late week warm-up

Update (11/6) - I apologize for this late update to the blog. It's the first time in my life I've ever had to wait in line at a polling booth--crazy times I guess. West Virginia isn't even a battleground state I thought. Looks like everyone wants to make their views known. Good for us :-)

Our storm system still moves up the seaboard on the models, though the NAM is hinting at a bit of a "laming out" of the storm. Both it and the GFS want the system to do a loop-de-loop south of Long Island, though the GFS is much more on the "I want to make snow on the way out" than the NAM. In my years forecasting for New England, usually the adage is that once a storm shows signs of becoming less of a big deal, it usually keeps doing that. We'll take a look at it for tomorrow's blog post, coming up in a few hours ;-)

For our weather, we're staying below normal in temperatures until this system kicks out of here, then it's on to that nice Indian Summer we've been telling you about. It's interesting to watch all the vorticity wrapped up in this system curl right around us such that we barely feel a thing from it-- not complaining, we deserve to sit one out sometimes.

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It's back to Monday-- and here's to hoping for a less eventful week weather-wise for the tri-state area ;-) I could use a break.

Today's weather map features our baby storm system cutting through the plains on its way down south underneath high pressure that edges in locally.

HPC - Monday PM

Though we'll get some sunshine during the course of the next couple of days, the temperatures will continue to be some 5-10 degrees below normal (check out the 7-day forecast below for the particulars).

As for this storm system, though it's still days from making the turn and rapidly developing up the coastline, the models are still coalescing around an inland snow event. The NAM model, now that it's able to get a look at it, is trying to turn this thing into snowier possibilities--mainly by keeping it farther offshore.

NAM - Wednesday AM NAM - Thursday AM

This storm strengthens (deepens) from 1004mb to 977mb between midnight Wednesday and Midnight Thursday. Whenever a storm strengthens with that kind of explosiveness, it is appropriately termed a "Bomb" cyclone. So, we're going to get another Nor'easter bomb off the Carolina coast and heading up the eastern seaboard. Here's how all the models are handling it's path:

Model Storm Tracks

That "X" is the target zone for a snow-event along the I-95 corridor in New England. It represents 70w / 40n on a longitude / latitude map. If you want to ball-park it, go straight east from central Jersey until you line up due south of Cape Cod. If you are a smidge north of this "X", you bring too much warm air in with you and change everything to rain for the big cities, keeping the snow inland. Too far south and you do stay cold, but most of the moisture is concentrated farther south and the few remaining snow lovers on the Cape enjoy some rare bliss. The energy in the Atlantic always wants to force those inside-the-benchmark storm tracks, so it takes an accompaniment of cold air (or a negative NAO climate pattern) to give it that extra something. In this example, it appears we're going to get the inland variety, though the NAM/CMC makes it interesting for the mountains of Western MA and CT. Regardless, a sub 980mb low is akin to near hurricane strength if it were a tropical system, so unfortunately the coastal areas already impacted by Sandy would need to stay sharp. Particularly New England this time.

And Then What Happens...

Often when we have a high amplitude jet stream, we can see a pattern develop that keeps the troughs over the same area for a while (week or two) before shifting it to a different area for a similar period of time. Well, we're going to get that shift in time for the weekend. Check out how our trough-ridge pattern tilts back to the west in the coming days:

GFS - Thursday Morning GFS - Saturday Morning

With the ridge building over the east thanks to the deep digging trough out west, we'll certainly be warming up around here. 70 anyone?

The temperature outlook for the next week beyond keeps the mantle of the warm weather in the east, with the trough out west. These patterns can only last so long you know :-)

6-10 Day Outlook - Temperature 6-10 Day Outlook - Precipitation

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Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking

Accuweather Radar

From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image

Activity Overview Storm Outlook Watches Potential Watches Storm Reports
Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active Warnings
Current Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active NWS Warnings
Click For Larger Click For Interactive Radar Click For Larger Click For Larger

Have a great day everyone!

-B

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