Update - All Eyes on the Weekend (and beyond)

Today is another hot one, but changes are a-comin'. Two main batches of rain, before resuming the unseasonably warm weather.

It's Thursday, and we're spending another day in the 80s. Time to bring up one of my favorite driving tunes from back in the day (and no, I'm not pathetic) :-)

I know I just got back to work from hanging out with my new baby Landon, but I'm also working for the weekend :-)

Let's check out the modeled high temperatures for the next few days... The change in the air is advertised quite nicely on the GFS:

GFS Temps - Thurs GFS Temps - Fri GFS Temps - Sat GFS Temps - Sun

So cooler weather is on the way for the weekend...Great! However, we've been talking about the rain coming in as well (with thunder too, albeit a little diminished from the intensity we've been tracking to the west). Here's how a few models have been resolving its arrival:

GFS - Fri 8pm
CMC - Fri 8pm WRF - Fri 8pm

Depending on the model (I happen to like the GFS here), the moisture moves in at different times. This can also have an impact on the high temperatures Friday, for example if the CMC verifies, there is no way we're getting to 85° on Friday.

On the moisture side of things, something has popped out to me that I thought I'd mention... There looks to be two main batches of moisture to track. This first one when the rains initially move in, but then another shows up closer to the start of next week (there will be a mish-mash of scattered hit-and-miss showers/storms in between as well, as is typically the case in these scenarios). This shows up well in the HPC 5-day precipitation forecasts:

HPC - Rain ending Saturday
HPC - Sunday/Monday Rain

So this is interesting... The possibility of getting 2" of rain up I-79 on the weekend after a half-inch on the previous days would imply another good soaking for the May-flowers-that-just-happen-to-be-showing-up-a-lot-sooner. Here's the same agency's idea of what is going to be triggering this next batch of showers:

This type of pattern (storm re-developing close to the NC/VA border and heading out to the Atlantic) is much more "March-y", which is another reason why it would break the trend we've been setting lately. However, I have my doubts about this one being able to drop thaaat amount of rainfall over Central West Virginia. I would expect the bulk of the moisture to actually fall along the mountain line on the eastern slopes, (and also into VA/MD/NC). Closer to the Ohio River the area would get less rainfall because of what is called a "rain shadow" (I can talk more about that another time). If you look up on their map, HPC has drawn in a little line in orange that signifies an "inverted trough" (let's not bother with that now). That also plays a lot into their thinking about why there's going to be a little bulls-eye of rainfall there. This is something we can watch as we get close to the weekend (gotta have something to talk about, right?)

The threat of severe weather will not be too great across our area today, but I'll pass along the alerts from SPC (below) anyway-- because y'all like them so much :-)

Update 2pm - We talked about this on WSAZ Midday, but the record-breaking heat yesterday put Huntington, WV in rare form for March. Typically it's only a few weeks in April that West Virginia (and oddly enough New Jersey) have the possibility of being the hottest place in the US on a given day-- yes including the desert southwest and gulf coast. Here's what the final tally yesterday was:

Ft. Myers, FL - 90°
Tampa, FL - 88°
Valdosta, GA - 88°
Huntington, WV - 87°
Alpena, MI - 87°

But frankly, Places in the northern "thumb" section of Michigan really hit it out of the park. Check out this link... Some areas of Northern Michigan were as warm as we were, but at the same time broke previous record highs by more than THIRTY degrees(!) That would be like hitting 115° in Huntington yesterday...

"Inconceivable!"

We were showing model solutions the other day of temperatures approaching 50-degrees above normal. It looks like we were not that far off... Alpena, MI's normal high for the 21st is 40...and it hit 87.

Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking

Accuweather Radar

 From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image

Activity Overview Storm Outlook Watches Potential Watches Storm Reports

 

Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active Warnings
Current Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active NWS Warnings
Click For Larger Click For Interactive Radar Click For Larger Click For Larger

Have a great day everyone!

-B

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