Another Weekend Update & Next Week's Snow Chances

After seeing near record high temperatures this weekend, we are expecting a strong cold blast next week. Will we see some snow with this cool down?

Overnight, scattered showers will stay confined to Ohio until early Saturday morning, when the rest of the tri-state area will see a chance of rain. These showers will retreat northwest-ward, allowing for a dry spell in much of West Virginia (some good news for the South Charleston Parade at noon). Sunday morning, a widespread band of heavy rainfall will push through along with very gusty winds. You will want to bring any large Christmas decorations indoors on Saturday night as wind gusts up to 40MPH will be possible in areas. Here is the projected rainfall totals...


Much of West Virginia and E. Kentucky is now in the 0.5-1.0" range. Far Southern Ohio should see 1.0-1.5", with areas like Columbus and Cincinnati seeing closer to 2.0-3.0".  You may have noticed the "new" bull's eye which is located to our southeast. Rain is looking to fall along this highlighted area on Sunday (after it passes our region) with frontogenesis aiding in bringing heavier showers.

As for the chance of snow next week, the GFS is starting to show a better moisture flow into our region. You may have remembered yesterday's outlook was rather dry looking. Here is the 18Z run of the GFS ...


This forecast shows a decent flow of moisture off the Great Lakes starting early Tuesday morning and continuing into Tuesday afternoon. Notice the thicknesses- we are sitting at about a 5220 m thickness. Anything below a 5600 m thickness is ideal for snow!

Furthermore, the Euro is supporting the possibility of snow...


Tuesday morning we see temperatures in the upper levels dipping down to about -14°C which is plenty cold for snow production. Overall, the image shows strong cold air advection into our region. Moving into Wednesday morning, we start to see warm air advection (winds are blowing in from the southeast transporting warmer/moister air). This really caught my attention! With this set-up, we may see overrunning, or a phenomenon when warm air is pushed over pre-existing cold air. Warm air can hold more moisture so it brings the potential for heavier precipitation over a region and the cold air below has the ability to cool the precipitation into snow. Long story short, this would mean snow for Christmas morning!

I may be jumping the gun a little bit but wouldn't we all love a white Christmas? I'll keep an eye on this potential...

Have a great weekend!

-Kelly Ann

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