Welcome to your Sunday!
There have been lots of backyard thermometers on broil this weekend, so don't expect today to be any different. "Official" high temperatures will probably stay tucked in the lower 90s. However, the "convective temperature" in the early afternoon will be 89-90 degrees. This will put pop-up thunderstorms in the mountains once again.
|NAM - SimRadar - Sunday 2PM|
It doesn't look like much there, but if the temperatures inch up a little more, expect the Charleston area to be a lot closer to the action. These figure to be the "nature's air conditioner" variety rather than a serious mark of severe weather. Memorial Day campers be advised, particularly if you're heading to the eastern mountains.
Monday figures to have a similarly convective profile, though the larger scale map tries to keep showers out of the picture because of a localized area of high pressure drawing a sharp contrast between it and the arrival of Tropical Storm Beryl into the north Florida coast (more on that later). Here's the depiction from HPC:
|HPC - Monday AM|
Higher resolution forecast models are more inclined to draw in a little more storm activity later in the afternoon (any AM Memorial Day festivities are not threatened by this). Check out the 12km resolution NAM product:
|NAM - 2pm Monday|
The cold front that is shown on the above surface map by HPC will be coming through on Tuesday, exiting out early Wednesday. This won't bring a lot of moisture, perhaps just a single day of relief for the plants. A more notable storm system is headed in at the end of the week. This will feature showers, storms, and cooler temperatures to follow. This is something we'll be following in the week ahead, but here's what the GFS is thinking:
|GFS - Friday PM|
We've got some pretty good ingredients here-- although we know how sometimes the models like to 'extreme-ize' storm systems in late time-frames. Nevertheless, the GFS is talking about thunderstorms, winds, and a return to high temperatures more than 20-degrees cooler than they are now.
---Tropical Tangent (Beryl)---
For those who are interested...
|NHC - "Beryl" - Track||"Beryl" - Wind Field|
Not a threat to us, but looks to be a "landfalling" Tropical Storm at any rate. The Jacksonville - Savannah coastline rarely sees a tropical landfalling, so usually when it does happen it's these little piddly things :-)
|Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking||
From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image
|Activity Overview||Storm Outlook||Watches||Potential Watches||Storm Reports|
|Temperatures||HD Doppler Radar||Estimated Rainfall||Active Warnings|
|Click For Larger||Click For Interactive Radar||Click For Larger||Click For Larger|
Have a great day everyone!