As we saw yesterday, not a whole lot of showers sparked up. Granted, the appearance on the models was a little sparse to begin with, but it was trending less and less. We should take this reality and factor it forward with how the models are treating today's weather. As we've discussed previously, we're still in the same pattern with cold air aloft agitating the weather at the surface once the mid-day heating sets in. We're certain to see the afternoon cumulus clouds bubble up again, but here's what the models are looking at for today's convection:
|NAM - Tuesday AM||NAM - Tuesday PM|
So the models are looking for us to be at it again baby-sitting the Doppler for a few isolated showers (and rumbles), but still expect more misses than hits.
Following this, high pressure comes in and begins an extended stay over the tri-state area. Here's the surface map from HPC:
|HPC - Surface Map - Wednesday|
This double-barrel area of high pressure will be blocking systems from cutting through the Ohio Valley right into the end of the week-- but it won't be a clean sweep for everybody. For those in the southern and eastern mountains, eventually we'll see a general ascent-flow in the afternoon that will doubtless encourage a few pop-up showers in the heating hours of the day. It's simply the price for living in the mountains and enjoying those vista views :-) It happens every year, and I'm sure all y'all are quite used to getting the brief afternoon shower while the rest of us stay dry. At least it's not going to get out of hand; no severe weather is expected.
Temperatures will be on a general up-tick through the end of the week, taking us from comfortably below normal to a more typical August-y above-normal.
|GFS - MaxTemps - Wednesday||GFS - MaxTemps - Thursday||GFS - MaxTemps - Friday|
It's still a pretty nice stretch of weather by typical mid-August standards. It's good to get a break after such a harrowing June-July. We deserve it :-)
|Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking||
From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image
|Activity Overview||Storm Outlook||Watches||Potential Watches||Storm Reports|
|Temperatures||HD Doppler Radar||Estimated Rainfall||Active Warnings|
|Click For Larger||Click For Interactive Radar||Click For Larger||Click For Larger|
Have a great day everyone!