Update - As The Rain Pulls Away, Even Colder Temperatures To Arrive

After a string of 80° days, why frost may be a reality two days in a row

Happy Sunday out there...

First thing's first... We still have those showers on our hands, but the bulk of the moisture is indeed departing to our east:

HAS Precipitation Forecast HPC Precipitation Forecast

 I've been keeping my eye on some colder weather to the north that looks primed to dive on in here behind this system as it finally leaves us. Before I show the maps, a little context: (click for a larger image)

It is "normal" to have some sub-freezing weather 'round these parts all the way into April. This can occur even in situations where there's a prolonged warming trend some days or weeks previous. The normal low temperature for the I-64 corridor these days is 38°. So here's why I think the early part of next week will be "back to reality"...

(for your listening pleasure...considering the weather that's coming...)

So here are some maps that show large areas of highs and lows and how they move during the next few days:

GFS - Sun PM / Mon PM / Tues PM

Okay, what I want you to watch for is the developing deep dip in New England. It starts out as a little sagging, but then rapidly turns into very strong plunge of low pressure by Tuesday night just off the New England coastline. If this were a 'normal' late winter/early spring pattern, the jet stream would be farther south, and we'd have some nasty snow in the New England area, but instead, it just misses. But, they still get the kind of chill that comes around following such storms.

GFS Temps - Mon AM GFS Temps - Tue AM

Now, I have my doubts about Tuesday's temperatures plunging that low, because we'll already be in warm-back-up mode by then. But, this is a good indication of what's coming, particularly on Monday (for reference, the first contour of red is the 32° line, with the 30s all through West Virginia both mornings as indicated by the model). All sheltered valleys and 'hollers' will be seeing the maximum amount of cooling we'll get from this thing on Monday night into early Tuesday.

To give you an idea as to where this stacks up compared to normal, here's that "anomaly" map again (whatever is different than 'normal' is called an anomaly):

(The white on the map indicates "zero" anomaly, or "normal" temperatures). This means, for at least a day or two, we will actually see 'below normal' temperatures. Notice off to the west temperatures 15° above normal are once again approaching, so this bout of cold weather will be short-lived. But it should serve as a warning-shot across the bow for agricultural interests that even the plants can get fooled by nature. Of course, as I say that, my wife ran out and bought a bunch of annuals to plant in the garden yesterday. I suppse we'll have to see how they do. At the very least, I think I've got her convinced to wait until mid-week this week. :-)

Update 5:30am - The National Weather Service has now issued "Freeze Watch" notices for central West Virginia westward to Ohio (roughly from Sutton, WV westward past Portsmouth, OH). In these locations, "temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 20s and lower 30s". The Frost/Freeze program usually isn't instituted by the NWS until several weeks from now, but because of the early warmth around here the growing season has been running 3-5 weeks ahead of schedule. Unfortunately, this only prolongs the vulnerability plants and fruit trees have to the cold (because typically it's still quite likely to occur until we get deep into April). The counties in pink (fuscia?) on the warnings map below are the ones thus far that are pegged with freeze watches.

Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking

Accuweather Radar

Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active Warnings
Current Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active NWS Warnings
Click For Larger Click For Interactive Radar Click For Larger Click For Larger

Have a great day everyone!

-B

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