Good Thursday to one and all :-)
I could't help but remember the movie of the same name when I wrote the title of this blog post. In it, Jack Nicholson and Helen Hunt are great (it is the last movie in which both the main actor and actress won their respective Oscar category). Here's one of my fav clips in the movie (and I can't get slapped by my wife by posting it on the blog, so yay!)
(I'm just kidding!) Anyway, if you haven't seen the movie...it's worth a rental.
Today and tomorrow will feature some of the best "May Days" we'll get around here. Check out the surface map:
Big area of high pressure following a cold front that actually makes it across the mountains-- can't argue with that. When (if) we get these in the dog days of summer, it would also be a wonderful thing. Expect low humidities and seasonable temperatures in the upper 70s and low 80s. We're also going to get a few days in a row out of it too. Perfect for the backyard grill.
Now here's the catch: Some of you blog-watchers may not be able to partake as fully in this sunny goodness the whole way through. I've got some skepticism going about the southern mountains staying dry through the weekend:
|GFS - Friday PM||GFS - Saturday PM|
The folks in the coal fields don't like those little blue blips on the screen. They're not organized by or associated with a frontal system, so the way these guys would form is by the afternoon heating of the day combined with the aid of elevation. Surface winds will be generally upslope too, and that always helps to generate storms.
Here's some hope though: As we've discussed before, the GFS is not as hi-res as some other products are. And we do have a high-res output for the first time-frame:
|NAM (6km) - Friday PM|
So while one product creates those smoother-looking blobs, the other (closer) one indicates a more isolated and confined nature to those same showers. It's amazing what smoothing and grid resolution does to a model's output ;-) Keep in mind though, that for the isolated pop-up shower, these high-resolution maps are better for getting an idea of what kind of weather we're going to see, moreso than the actual location of that weather. In the same vein, the Saturday PM forecast may be similarly suspect, but we don't have that map yet because the high-res models only go out so far.
---Tangent (shameless plug)---
An original WSAZ production, "The Impossible Storm: Tornado Terror" goes back to the night of the twister outbreak of March 2nd. Followers of this blog would like the re-living of the forecasting experience as well as the conditions on the ground. Actual video and interviews of the event along with never-before seen video as well. We all helped put this together, and we hope you consider this program 'appointment television' :-)
I'll probably blog about this again a time or two :-)
The dates, times, and channels are on the image above!
|Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking||
|Temperatures||HD Doppler Radar||Estimated Rainfall||Active Warnings|
|Click For Larger||Click For Interactive Radar||Click For Larger||Click For Larger|
Have a great day everyone!
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