As hot as it gets around here

Triple-digit heat extends our heat wave to a rare tenth day. A change in the weather pattern comes next week, but that makes Sunday night a prime target for storms.

Welcome to Saturday!

High temperatures in Huntington reached 100 degrees yesterday, and indications are that we're going to inch a little warmer than that today. The National Weather Service has issued "Excessive Heat Warnings" to urge caution for outdoor activities (or to simply avoid the strenuous ones entirely). Crews working to restore power to the people that remain without are going to be particularly stressed today. Consider offering them a cool drink of water if they are in your neighborhood :-)

The storm system we discussed yesterday will be approaching on Sunday, with cooler skies behind it. The potential exists for severe weather associated with this event, because 100-degree heat does not reduce to the 80s without a fight. Here's how the models are timing it:

WRF - Sunday 8pm GFS - Sunday 8pm

The WRF model is more clear on a line-like nature of the storm progression. I like the GFS wide-spreading flare-up of storms Sunday afternoon. I prefer to put both concepts together.

Here are some more indicators I'd like to show:

NAM - Available Storm Energy - Sunday PM SPC - Severe Weather Potential - Sunday PM

The image on the left denotes what is called "CAPE" or Convective Available Potential Energy. Basically, it shows how strong storms could get if they were to be able to pop at all (it's still not a guarantee in high CAPE areas). For clarity, I'm also offering the Storm Prediction Center's analysis of Sunday's severe weather potential. Our area has a 30% chance of experiencing a severe weather event within any 25-mile radius-- this, to me, is as close as you get to a 'guarantee' this far out. This bears close monitoring. The best wind shear and fast winds in the atmosphere will be riding above this line, so I don't see tornadoes being a big threat, but power hits unfortunately are looming.

More on the change in the weather pattern

After these storms move through and the front sags south, we're starting to see the makings of a stall-out. On the good side, this will give us seasonable temperatures in the 80s with all the cloud cover and precipitation. On the bad side, the cooler weather may not be as easily enjoyed outside because of rain. For example, here's a look at the projected rainfall in the days ahead:

HPC - Projected Rainfall - Through Wednesday PM

The southern part of our area will be more vulnerable to the stall-out because the front encounters increasingly more resistance as it tries to sag south. Expect several disturbances to ride west-to-east along the horizontally draped front, providing the episodes of showers and storms that can get us the amounts projected above.

Bottom line: Excessive heat is the main story both today and tomorrow afternoon, but we will have to monitor the potential development of severe weather late Sunday that will cap off our quite remarkable run of hot weather.

Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking

Accuweather Radar

From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image

Activity Overview Storm Outlook Watches Potential Watches Storm Reports
Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active Warnings
Current Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active NWS Warnings
Click For Larger Click For Interactive Radar Click For Larger Click For Larger

Have a great day everyone!



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