Update - As the heat builds, watch out for some PM storms

Temperatures are really going to take off this week, bringing back that summer-time feel. Of course, can't go far in that kind of weather without a rumbling storm nearby-- so we'll be on the lookout this afternoon.

Updates below (most recent 7:30pm)

It's back to Monday. I hope your weekend was a restful one.

It's time to hit the ground running today...We've got some heat, and we've got some humidity... and you know what that means ;-)

Let's first check out the weather map for the afternoon, and I'll point out some features (caution...this may be a little wonky, you can skip ahead and be just fine):

--Weather geeky tangent (skip if uninterested)--

HPC - Surface Map - Monday 8pm

A lot of people don't have fond memories of school... So I apologize if there's too much of a teachy feel to this paragraph. The innards of today's weather map are quite 'textbook', so I guess it's a good time to pull over and take a look ;-)

So what we've been going through these past several days has been a general 'zone' of convergence where winds from the north and south keep pushing the clouds and moisture into one line, and that line has basically hung around the Ohio Valley giving us a shot at showers and storms whenever impulses of energy come along it. This is one such time. When these systems influnce the 'zone' they will cause it to bulge into a wave, with warm air advancing out ahead of it, and cold air filling in behind it. I took the liberty of drawing in those wind arrows on the map. Initially, the warm front will lift above us, putting us in the 'warm sector'. Here's where Captain Obvious steps in and tells us that's where the push of warm air is. Showers and storms in this sector are disorganized and scattered-- but it prepares the area to be ripe for the cold front that follows behind it. Given the surge of warm air we're going to see tomorrow, it won't at all be surprising to see a line of storms form early in the afternoon and rumble towards us far out in front of the cold front (when the squall line forms, it creates its own environment and is no longer moored to the larger synoptics). That's what we'll be tracking, and we may end up doing so earlier than 8pm.

--End Tangent--

The models are basically in agreement with the more organized action starting in the afternoon. Here's what they're saying for later in the day:

WRF - Monday 8pm CMC - Monday 8pm GFS - Monday 8pm

This is the primary line that we'll be watching-- but it won't preclude a little scattered action that may crop up earlier. Hazy, Hot, and Humid and all that...

Here's an idea of the juice we're talking about during the heat of the day:

NAM - CAPE - Monday 2pm

Just in case I haven't discussed it before, "CAPE" stands for "Convective Available Potential Energy" which I affectionately refer to as "storm juice". In situations like these, it gathers and builds during the day and would get quenched (used up) by the storms that form from the front sweeping in from the west. The severity of the storms would be determined by how well the ingredients phase. In our particular example, I suspect we'll be doing some storm updates later today ;-)

In other news, check out how warm the heat gets. It appears Mr. Cold Front doesn't actually plow through our area, but instead hangs just above so that we still get scraped by the storms. One way we know this is because the temperatures only continue to get warmer this week. Have a look at these numbers...

GFS - Max Temps - Monday GFS - Max Temps - Tuesday GFS - Max Temps - Wednesday

Now Monday may be a little exaggerated (consider the models really wanting to heat things up), but by Wednesday who knows-- could we have our first 90-degree day?

Update 10:30am - The Storm Prediction Center has placed the tri-state area in a "slight risk" zone for severe weather. Here's the breakdown:

SPC - Hail Threat SPC - Wind Threat SPC - Tornado Threat

Tornadoes are not going to be an issue today, and most of the action won't arrive until late today (or tonight). Hail certainly has cropped up in the recent storms, so there's no reason to rule that out today either. The yellow zone on the maps above won't fill up for many hours, so still plenty of time to get worry-free time outdoors-- but do bring along your sunscreen and water bottle! 

Update 7:30pm - We are under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch from the National Weather Service until a little after midnight tonight. The rumblers that are on doppler (seen below) have a history of the healthy downpours and even some spot hail. The biggest threat for us will be the downpours and power hits typically caused from our summer-time storms. We'll be on the lookout for hail as well, though most instances should be the smaller variety. Follow me on Twitter for any weather alerts that may come ( @WSAZBrandon )

All the tracker maps are up today-- enjoy! Check back for updates, and follow me on Twitter for instant storm alerts!

Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking

Accuweather Radar

From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image

Activity Overview Storm Outlook Watches Potential Watches Storm Reports
Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active Warnings
Current Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active NWS Warnings
Click For Larger Click For Interactive Radar Click For Larger Click For Larger

Have a great day everyone!


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