Back to Monday!
The start of the day continues the nice stretch of weather on the weekend, but clouds will be spotting up out ahead of another series of disturbances that will bring showers. Don't expect a whole lot here, nor anticipate severe weather. There isn't a lot of forcing coming in just yet, but what helps kick off the showers is more what goes on aloft than at the surface.
I know it's a little wonky, but it does all start with 'vorticity'... Here's the NAM model product:
|NAM - 500mb Chart - Tuesday|
In those squares are the red 'x's that mark lobes of positive vorticity. This mid-level twisting in the atmosphere just about always stir things up at the surface. They are more impressive in winter time, but in the summer sometimes they give away more hints of what the weather's going to be like than searching for warm fronts and cold fronts.
Here's how this reflects down at the surface:
|NAM - Tuesday Morning||NAM - Tuesday Evening|
So this is why I wanted to show the vorticity map... Two disturbances come through, the first one being later today. Notice how the showers still look pretty good on the NAM in the mountains Tuesday morning, but there's nothing going on upstream in Ohio and Indiana. However, when we get the proper timing and phasing of vorticity aloft and heating at the surface, we generate more showers in the afternoon where there were none before. Meteorologists often look at all of these maps in tandem when assessing the forecast in case the first-order analysis doesn't unearth these clues.
This will be the last opportunity for rainfall for the month of July. The Huntington area has received an astounding 7.74" of rain so far here, almost double the normal amount for the month, and more than enough to cover June. By the way, it also beats out what happened last June/July as well-- no small feat in our wettest year ever.
Today has a shot at getting to 90 if we keep the Sun out long enough before showers pop up, and we'll look at the same thing later this week. However, given the summer we've already had, I suppose 90 isn't all that special anymore :)
|Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking||
From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image
|Activity Overview||Storm Outlook||Watches||Potential Watches||Storm Reports|
|Temperatures||HD Doppler Radar||Estimated Rainfall||Active Warnings|
|Click For Larger||Click For Interactive Radar||Click For Larger||Click For Larger|
Have a great day everyone!
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