Updates below (most recent 6:00pm)

What a nice weekend! I hope you all got a chance to get out there and enjoy it. As we head toward fall, I have to think we'll get a few more in here before it gets too cold. But speaking of 'cold'... we'll see the coolest weather thus far coming up this week.

First, the rain. A storm system has developed and is moving up through the Tennessee Valley and will come right across our region. Beneficial rains are in the offing, so try to crack a smile when you get out the umbrella. Here's the breakdown by time:

NAM - Monday PM	NAM - Tuesday AM	NAM - Tuesday PM

The focus of the rainfall looks to be (again) south of I-64 and up the mountain chain. Overall, here's what the rainfall projections are over the period:

HPC - Rainfall Projections Through Wednesday

After this rain, the storm system that brings it will also channel in some notably colder air behind it. Here's a GFS Projection:

GFS - Wednesday Morning

The blue dotted lines indicate temperatures at the 850mb level (about 5,000 feet) to be below-freezing. High pressure will bring clearing skies, but certainly also the long sleeves and the thoughts of deeper fall weather.

GFS - Max Temps - Monday	GFS - Max Temps - Tuesday	GFS - Max Temps - Wednesday

Let the cooling begin...

Oh, and by the way, here are the projections for the days ahead:

6-10 Day Outlook - Temperature	6-10 Day Outlook - Precipitation

 This sort of thing is notable because of the pattern it could establish in the upcoming winter. Now, perhaps the law of averages puts it that whatever's entrenched now is what is not entrenched two months from now, however it will lead to increased snowfall somewhere. One of the reasons for this: The incredible summertime melting of arctic sea ice (by some estimates, an all-time record). With more water exposed in the arctic, more storms generate and more cold weather outbreaks plunge deep into the middle lattitudes. It remains to be seen whether that means Europe (again) this winter, or us.

Update (6:00pm) - The National Weather Service issued a Flood Watch (in the general sense, not specific to rivers or flash flooding, etc.) earlier in the day, but it wasn't going to be officially 'active' until now (6:00pm). It will stay active until 6:00pm tomorrow. Keep tabs on the accumulated rainfall estimates on Doppler radar by checking the updating maps below. The expectation is for a healthy 1-2" of rain in the watch area, which is manageable considering the dry ground and the non-torrential but persistent nature of the rain. Nevertheless, if things get a little more than that, we'll be watching.

Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking	Accuweather Radar

From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image

Activity Overview	Storm Outlook	Watches	Potential Watches	Storm Reports

Temperatures	HD Doppler Radar	Estimated Rainfall	Active Warnings
Click For Larger	Click For Interactive Radar	Click For Larger	Click For Larger

Have a great day everyone!

-B

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