WSAZ - Blogs - Brandon Butcher

Better rain opportunities arrive-- then cooler skies too!

More scattered storms flare up in the afternoon heat, but this time we're also tracking a cold front coming in from the west. Good news as well-- today's the last day of the heat wave.

It's Thursday! (getting closer and closer to the weekend)

We've got the same pattern in place as we saw yesterday and the day before, but this time there's the first hints of "change" on the way. Let's start with the NAM model solution for today and tomorrow:

NAM - Thursday PM NAM - Friday PM

Just like we saw the past couple of days, most of the time we're just talking about hazy heat and humidity, but now a front approaches. This afternoon we won't quite get to experience the more organized precipitation that a front brings, so it's back to the same sporadic pop-ups. Friday we'll be tracking that rather weak front, so a slight up-tick in rain chances are in order. It probably goes without saying, but when it rains, it pours with these folks, as there's a lot of untapped energy in the region:

NAM - K Index - Friday PM

The "K-index" is a measure of thunderstorm-ready instability in the atmosphere. Anything over 32 or so is a good indicator for storm formation, so we're well within the boundaries here.

Notice the big area of white (very stable air) to the west of us on the above map. That's another way of showing what happens after a front goes through (improving skies, etc.) One thing that we can count on with this once it moves through, is that the temperatures will start to ease up a bit. The weekend won't be that bad either, as the GFS is advertising some good out-door weather:

GFS - Saturday PM GFS - Sunday PM

Sunday may not end up being all that cool, but if you like dry afternoons on the weekend we've got a few coming up for you :-)

Now, for those of you who like cool(er) weather, we've got a treat there too. A rather large storm system is going to develop off the New England coast and get cut-off (which means the jet stream won't be able to push it out). Though we'll get some showers out of this come Monday, the primary thing we'll experience will be a notably cooler week next week, perhaps even all the way down to (gasp!) normal. Below normal is not out of the question either, if you believe these numbers from the models:

GFS - Temperature Departure - Thursday PM GFS - Temperature Departure - Saturday PM GFS - Temperature Departure - Monday PM

The maps may be a little hard to read, but suffice it to say they want to bring us from 10+ degrees above normal (90s) to 10+ degrees below normal (80-ish, or even below). We'll talk about the persistence of this upcoming weather pattern tomorrow, but the early word is that this semi cool spell (everything's relative, right?) may attempt to finish out our month of June.

Pay attention to the tracker maps below, as we'll be watching for scattered storms to pop today, with downpours a virtual certainty underneath those directly hit-- though most of us will be in the 'miss' category.

Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking

Accuweather Radar

From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image

Activity Overview Storm Outlook Watches Potential Watches Storm Reports
Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active Warnings
Current Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active NWS Warnings
Click For Larger Click For Interactive Radar Click For Larger Click For Larger

Have a great day everyone!

-B

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