Happy Wednesday! Half-way home!
It's always a little disconcerting to encounter the 'good' weather during the middle of the week, because that heightens the risk of showers on the weekend (simply going with the law of averages and general climatology of storm frequency). The weather for the rest of this week looks to hold true to this form, but the fact that the temperatures are much cool makes any one of these days just fine with me :-)
Let's check today out, because looking at it yesterday there was a risk of showers stepping in late in the day to disrupt an otherwise wonderfully sunny and seasonable time. I think the message becomes more clear when examining models of differing resolutions:
|GFS - Wednesday PM||NMM - Wednesday PM||NAM SimRadar - Wednesday PM|
Note the closer-in resolutions as you go left-to-right in the above images. Though the GFS is hinting at some stray showers Wednesday afternoon, subsequent scans at finer grid-spacing reduce this potential and constrain it farther north. Nevertheless, there should be a line of clouds wandering through the area later Wednesday that may attempt a sprinkle, but the lion-share of the day will feature returning sunshine and much more agreeable temperatures.
The same scenario is advertized for Thursday, but we lose the higher-resolution imagery to cross reference it. A storm system is indeed on the way, but it won't get here until after the close of the day Thursday. Here's the GFS depiction:
|GFS - Thursday PM||GFS - Friday PM||GFS - Saturday PM|
The Pikeville area may get clipped early by this approaching system, but given the trends established with the aforementioned review of today's weather most of the area should again be just fine weather-wise. Friday is certainly the rain-out kind of day. This storm system is pretty potent, as indicated by the tight packing of temperature contours (the thin black lines). There is a decent cold pool of air behind the front, but not only does it (mostly) miss us to the north it also "modifies" a little bit and becomes less intense (more on this shortly).
Here's a look at the anticipated rainfall from this event (from HPC):
|HPC - Projected Rainfall - Friday through Sunday|
Another healthy watering for the plants, with an outside shot at spot flooding with any slow-moving storm. Overall, I'm sure the lawn and garden will approve :-)
When talking about the upcoming temperatures cooling down, we're still expecting that to happen. However, it's interesting to note that there will be this 'modifying' of air whereby the arriving cold air mixes with the warm ground temperatures near the surface on its way along. This mutes the intensity of the cold and cuts the impact a bit. Here are some of the numbers:
|GFS - MaxTemps - Thursday||GFS - MaxTemps - Friday||GFS - MaxTemps - Saturday|
I'm showing a different slice of the country with these maps, but it still includes our local area. Notice the little area of 50s for high temperatures. They are certainly cooler than normal for this time of year, but they fade by Saturday as the air 'modifies'. We still get to enjoy highs in the upper 60s and low 70s, so it's not like the colder air goes away completely-- but it is noticeable. It also reflects weakening cold air aloft as well, which hopefully means a shorter duration of rainfall by early Saturday (and a better shot at dry skies during the weekend).
|Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking||
From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image
|Activity Overview||Storm Outlook||Watches||Potential Watches||Storm Reports|
|Temperatures||HD Doppler Radar||Estimated Rainfall||Active Warnings|
|Click For Larger||Click For Interactive Radar||Click For Larger||Click For Larger|
Have a great day everyone!
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