11/9 Update - Big Bubble, No Trouble

High pressure fills in behind our departing coastal storm, representing a clear pattern change that puts the east on the sunny and warmer track instead of having a target on our backs.

11/9 Update - True to form, temperatures both this morning and yesterday morning started off in the low/mid 20s in the sheltered valleys, and 28-32 in the urban areas. From here on out our high pressure system will go to work. Expect plenty of sunshine and incrementally warmer weather each day through Sunday (and perhaps touching 70 on Monday too). Rain lurks on Tuesday, and with it a rapid drop in temperature that could well finish with a few flakes.

With so many days between now and then though, it's a perfect time to relax and enjoy. Also sounds like a great opportunity to make more headway on the winter weather seasonal forecast. :-)

A good Thursday morning to one and all.

Thank you for stopping by the blog today. It's an easier time weather-wise, so I appreciate your patronage even in the non-blockbuster times :-)

Today's weather map is as discussed previously; we're looking at high pressure coming into view, kicking out our nor'easter off the coast of Cape Cod.

HPC - Thursday PM

Notice how we're still on the Northerly wind component of the High pressure (trace the thin gray lines in a clockwise fashion around high pressure to get a general view of the wind-field). Whenever cores of high pressure are just to our southwest, we typically experience our coldest mornings, as this is when any push of cold air focuses best combined with some of the driest air. Check out the dew points these next two mornings.

NAM - Dew points - Thursday AM NAM - Dew points - Friday AM

This morning and tomorrow morning feature some good radiational cooling nights (clear skies, light winds, increasing hours of darkness), so it's easy to see how some of those hollers will get into the 20s both days to start the morning. Bundle up.

Have no fear though, it won't be long until we jump into the warming trend we've been advertising all week long. Check out the 7-day forecast below for the goods. Highs will even approach 70 on Veterans Day, a much warmer parade time than what we saw last year.

The next opportunity for rainfall holds off all the way until Next week, and even then doesn't stop by for too long. Here it is on the GFS:

GFS - Monday Evening GFS - Tuesday Afternoon

That's a good pool of cold air behind the front, so watch those temperatures dive Tuesday afternoon instead of proceed on a normal rise. Given the 850mb temperatures (the dashed and solid black lines) drop to the -2/-4 Celsius range, we may see a few flakes to finish things off, though the moisture is typically lacking in those situations-- off the mountains at least.

Between now and then there looks to be a good bit of down time (not that anyone's complaining). Perhaps that frees us up to take some more looks at that winter seasonal forecast ;-)

Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking

Accuweather Radar

From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image

Activity Overview Storm Outlook Watches Potential Watches Storm Reports
Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active Warnings
Current Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active NWS Warnings
Click For Larger Click For Interactive Radar Click For Larger Click For Larger

Have a great day everyone!


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