We've made it to Friday!
I'm coming to you with the help of a generator today (thank goodness for the friendly folks of the tri-state area!) Some of us are now more than a week without power, others have gained and lost it a few times-- and I even got a Facebook post yesterday from a nice lady who was saying she actually managed to hold unto her power the whole time until yesterday's storms. Consider lending a hand out there today as the community continues to come back online.
--- Power Restoration Update Tangent ---
Skip this if uninterested, I just wanted to post the new numbers on progress, etc.
For updates on when folks should be getting their power back, check out the latest here on WSAZ.com.
--- End Tangent ---
Today's forecast will challenge the grid again, but more because of the growing whirr of folks demanding power for their air conditioners. Check out some of the maps from the hi-res NAM regarding afternoon temperatures...
|NAM - Temperatures - Friday Afternoon||NAM - Temperatures - Saturday Afternoon|
Yep... The pink on the screen are the 100-degree (plus) temperatures. As we've been seeing these past several days, afternoon storms pop in response to this build-up of heat and humidity, but I'm a little more skeptical today, unfortunately, about our ability to get the boomers to pop. And here's why:
|NAM - Wind Field (by altitude)|
A sneaky area of high pressure (clockwise air motion) slips into the mid-levels of the atmosphere, effectively shutting off the direct flow of faster winds, shear, and steering current. Instead of strong storms developing along the Great Lakes and curling southward down I-77, look for them to stay up along I-80 and I-90. If the trends of yesterday continue (we were at 95-degrees by lunchtime), the triple-digit heat has us squarely in its sights. Perhaps only the folks that still have a soaked ground from yesterday will be spared, but it will be a fleeting victory considering your humidity will be ratcheted up in place of the air temperature. Heat Advisories will be the rule today through Sunday.
A Change In The Air...
But what is this I see..? A break in the heat comes soon. Yes, this time of year is climatologically the hottest-- so it's supposed to be warm. But, the upper 80s is still much cooler by comparison. That will be somewhat of a treat, but it comes at a price. Always remember that the weather required to usher in a new weather pattern that removes this sort of temperature extreme will require strong thunderstorms and/or breezy winds.
Indeed, organized and widespread convection looks to fire along a frontal boundary that will sag through the area during the second-half of Sunday into early Monday. Here's the GFS:
|GFS - Sunday Afternoon||GFS - Monday Morning
This might be the most telling graphic of all:
|SPC - Severe Weather Outlook - Sunday/Monday|
It is rare that the Storm Prediction Center highlights part of our area several days out. Our antennae should be raised on this one, and we will definitely be keeping tabs on this situation here at WSAZ.
Here's our tiny consolation for going through another round of potentially severe weather:
|GFS - Max Temps - Sunday||GFS - Max Temps - Monday||GFS - Max Temps - Tuesday|
Sunday's 90-degree temperatures are dependent on the timing of the arrival of the anticipated storms. If they show up after 4pm, expect the mid/high 90s again...with earlier bringing the 80s in more quickly. We'll be watching it.
Full suite of tracking maps below...
|Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking||
From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image
|Activity Overview||Storm Outlook||Watches||Potential Watches||Storm Reports|
|Temperatures||HD Doppler Radar||Estimated Rainfall||Active Warnings|
|Click For Larger||Click For Interactive Radar||Click For Larger||Click For Larger|
Have a great day everyone!