Good Sunday morning everyone!
Today is another day of tracking tricky showers, and watching to see who gets hit and who gets missed. It was an interesting and complicated forecast yesterday to say the least, as a stark clearing line advanced from west to east. Many folks were still grumbling about being in the drizzly 40s at the same time as others were upset that they canceled plans due to the weather but that the Sun showed up early on them. Your friendly local weather-man stays away from people on those days ;-)
So lets see what we've got on the surface map today:
|HPC - Surface Map - Sunday|
The boundary that controlled where all the clouds and showers were thickest yesterday is still slowly stumbling to the east. However, there is a low-pressure wave riding up along it (as is often the case whenever there are quasi-stationary boundaries). This is going to try to send moisture back westward, though I have my doubts just how far it'll spread-- especially in light of yesterday's results. Here's how the NAM model is handling it:
|NAM - Sunday Midday||NAM - Sunday Late
The models have been pushing the showers a tad bit more to the east as of late, so Ohio and Kentucky folks can expect less-- and when this blob of rain kicks out this afternoon, watch for sunshine to return once again. So, if you've got afternoon plans, know that once the skies start improving they are going to continue right on doing it.
Now, to the cold...
Temperatures have been consistently forecasted to drop into the 30s for the next two nights over the past several days. This continues to be the expectation. Skies will clear out overnight, and that good ole-fashioned radiational cooling will set up shop. As a benchmark for where we'll see temperatures start Monday, here's a look at the dewpoints:
|NAM - Dewpoints - Early Monday|
When the air cools "radiationally", the Earth continuously sends away heat, forcing down the temperature. Once the dewpoint is reached, the air cannot cool any further without getting water out of it. The dewpoint is the line at which point the amount of water in the air mandates saturation at that temperature-- there is no more room for any more water. Usually, this means fog/dew forms and the temperatures can only cool much more slowly.
Pay attention to the maps below for temperature and any frost/freeze warnings. Given the numbers above, the mid-30s in the cities and 28-34 are possible in those rural hollows.
|Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking||
From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image
|Activity Overview||Storm Outlook||Watches||Potential Watches||Storm Reports|
|Temperatures||HD Doppler Radar||Estimated Rainfall||Active Warnings|
|Click For Larger||Click For Interactive Radar||Click For Larger||Click For Larger|
Have a great day everyone!