Hello Saturday! :-)
Our strong cold front of yesterday has pulled eastward, but just like we were talking about yesterday, we're not quite out of the woods yet. HPC has a surface map out that we can start with:
|HPC - Saturday PM|
So we now have an entrenched area of low pressure setting up shop in the Great Lakes. This will essentially remain semi-permanent over that area for the next several days, being cut off from jet stream steering currents. Instead, like a water wheel, it will serve to generate airborne moisture from the Great Lakes and rotate it out counter-clockwise. With each spoke of the wheel, it's another threat for showers locally (and a cumulus cloud deck at the very least). Combined with the prime heating hours of the day, I bet if you look at the regional radar map below between 4-7pm you'll be seeing a patchwork of showers sprouting up.
Oddly enough, the other times of the day will be simply splendid, as many folks like a nice breeze and a cooler time in the summer. Here's what the NAM model looks like for the afternoons coming up:
|NAM - Saturday PM||NAM - Sunday PM||NAM - Monday PM|
Picture quiet, uneventful day-time hours preceding these sorts of afternoons. Because the storm energy is going to be very-much fractured on it's way around the low and into our neck-of-the-woods, it will be exceedingly hard to pinpoint ahead of time where exactly these showers will pop up. Another interesting tid-bit for these types of scenarios: Because the freezing layer is so low to the surface with a cold-pool of air like this, just about any strong shower carries with it the possibility to spring up some pea-sized hail (yep, hail). It won't be a big deal, just a novelty if you see it. The later imagery on into Monday also stands to reason: as the general area of low pressure over the Great Lakes becomes weaker and more diffuse, the energy rotating around it becomes even more un-spun, widening the radius of who can get a little bit of rain. Not to be lost on all this is that you'll be able to enjoy plenty of fair skies in between. I bet there will be a fair amount of rainbow sightings in the coming days.
Just one last note about the cooler-than-normal temperatures-- Just think about this whole year's worth of weather, even going back to last July. When was the last time we had this kind of relative cooling come to town and hang around this long?
|GFS - Temp Anomaly - Today thru Friday|
This is the only one folks. Which could mean it's not going to happen ;-) But, keep in mind given the propensity for the Sun to heat things up with the longest daylight days ahead, the only real way we're going to be able to keep temperatures below normal for this many days in a row is with afternoon clouds and showers springing up to keep us from notching those high-points. We'll see how it goes.
|Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking||
|Temperatures||HD Doppler Radar||Estimated Rainfall||Active Warnings|
|Click For Larger||Click For Interactive Radar||Click For Larger||Click For Larger|
Have a great day everyone!