Catching A Break... But Can It Last..?

The rain spigots have not been going as fiercely, but the ground still remains well primed for localized flooding when the next storm pops.

Happy Saturday everyone.

Our rain situation yesterday was a marked improvement, and allowed for a lot of cleanup to begin in the Lincoln/Logan county areas that were hit hard by as much as 4" of rain on Thursday. So many of the flooding issues down that way are from streams and creeks that fall as rapidly as they rise. Unfortunately, for some, this isn't the first time such a situation has occured, nor will it be the last (perhaps even just this year alone-- it is not all that rare, considering flooding of record is usually based on time-scales of 100 years).

Here's the current expected rainfall for the weekend:

HAS Precipitation Forecast HPC Precipitation Forecast

 Another thing that is important to note here (so you can follow along with the doppler radar and with the estimated precipitation products) is what is called 'flash flood guidance'. This is an output from a model at the Hydrology office in Charleston, WV that simulates the influx of new precipitation into the current ground conditions to estimate the kind of rain it'll take for flash flooding to occur. Normally these values would approach 3" in a 6-hour period (ie, it takes that much rain in 6-hours to cause flash flooding)...But, since the ground is the way it is, here's the current guidance levels for a few counties:

Name 1-hr 3-hr 6-hr 12-hr 24-hr
Cabell (WV) 1.2" 1.4" 1.7" 1.9" 2.2"
Mason (WV) 1.4" 1.7" 1.9" 2.2" 2.6"
Kanawha (WV) 1.4" 1.6" 2.0" 2.1" 2.5"
Logan (WV) 1.0" 1.2" 1.6" 1.7" 2.0"
Gallia (OH) 1.3" 1.7" 1.8" 2.0" 2.5"
Elliot (KY) 1.8" 2.1" 2.3" 2.5" 2.8"
Martin (KY) 1.6" 1.9" 2.1" 2.4" 2.9"

The good news is that the anticipated rainfall is not going to reach any of these threshholds... The bad news is that the ground is so saturated that a good thunderstorm can reach any one of these benchmarks, so it's still good to be on your toes.

Looking ahead to the future, we're still eyeing the middle of the country for the middle of the week for the potential for severe weather. Here is the GFS:

GFS - Precip/Pressure - Early Weds

Fortunately for our area, when the middle of the country is getting slammed, it's because that is where the clash of air masses is occurring. This usually means that the west 1/2 of the country is the cold place, which puts the east 1/2 as the warm folks. Yay.

Temperature Anomaly - Next 7 Days

This map measures temperature "anomaly". The "anomaly" is just a fancy word for the difference from the average. Our average high these days is around 55-degrees. Being 16-20 degrees above normal (according to the above map) would put us in the 70-75 degree range (though I suspect next week we'll be making another run or two at 80-degrees. When looking at this map, keep in mind that the weather is rarely 'normal' just about anywhere in the country. Instead, it's usually going to spend time above normal, then below normal, etc. etc. much like a wave would behave. Anyway, this map also gives away that there will be a point right in the middle where cold (below normal) and warm (above normal) will be clashing.

Here are the tracking tools for today. Let's hope that we don't trip into flash flooding territory, and that we're able to take advantage of a little breather to dry out. Perhaps it will be our "Luck O'the Irish" :-) Next week may become a little active in the middle part of the country, and we don't need to see any piece of that around here.

Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking

Accuweather Radar

 From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image

Activity Overview Storm Outlook Watches Potential Watches Storm Reports

 

Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active Warnings
Current Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active NWS Warnings
Click For Larger Click For Interactive Radar Click For Larger Click For Larger

Have a great day everyone!

-B

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