Greetings once again everyone :-)
We've been in this semi-gray and hazy pattern owing to a split-flow across the country.
HPC - Surface Map - Tuesday Afternoon
A storm system is getting its act together to our west though, and that is increasing the southerly tug on the air. This brings unseasonably warm temperatures back to the tri-state. Given the bone-chilling cold last week, this is going to have an extra measure of warm feeling out there. Expect highs to reach the 60s before the rain finally arrives. (In truth we may bump into a stray shower or two, but the real action comes later on this week).
So lets once again check in on our anticipated unsettled weather that'll be on the way...
A definite vein of rain is coming right up from the Gulf, through the Tennessee Valley, and on up the Appalachians. This will be a soggy time, as this tilt can be rather persistent. As shown yesterday, some parts of our area will be getting upwards of 1-2" of rain, particularly from Thursday through Saturday. Poor drainage areas and places plugged up with un-raked leaves can create a lot of puddles in that environment.
Then thoughts turn to the possibility of snow beyond that...
The GFS is demonstrating two further bursts of energy that forms along the same SW to NE oriented vein of action (sometimes refered to as a 'deformation zone'). The first one is a continuation of what comes through Thursday and Friday and has the opportunity to finish as flakes in the colder air that comes in behind-- though I'm not too crazy about it right now because of the present fashion of seeing the moisture leave before the necessary cold air arrives. The next impulse comes in on Sunday night and we may start with some cold-enough-for-snow conditions at the outset, but quickly jump to the rain category in the milder surge. It's got the look of a freezing rain event in the WV mountains for a bit too, so that may be something to keep watch on. Of all the different spots where we can get snow, I'm most positive about next Monday where the colder air finishes that last burst in a lake-effect fashion.
Some model diagnostics still call for measurable snow in the northern sections of our region, even for that first run...
GFS - Snowfall Projections - Through Saturday PM
That certainly would make things interesting for the WV Super-Six State Championship football games up in Wheeling, and for the other local conference championship games. But, as far as the over-all picture locally, I'm still not impressed because of all the transitions between rain and snow. I know it's still early, but those of you who like to instantly glom onto the highest snow projections each time may be disappointed again. Of course, however, it's something we'll be keeping an eye on in the coming days.
Have a great day everyone!