Good Tuesday morning to one and all...
The healthy rains of the overnight certainly helped us out in many ways: We were running slightly below normal (~0.8" or so) for rainfall in many parts of the tri-state... not anymore; We had a strong fire danger built up from the dry/warm/breezy weekend... now quenched in a strong way. A slight downer is strong rises on the many streams and creeks. Though no river flooding is currently forecast, be careful around those swollen rivers.
|NAM - Tuesday Morning||NAM - Clouds - Tuesday Afternoon|
Showers leave early in the morning, even as a few flakes mix in at mountain elevation, but any breaks in the clouds may well fill back in later in the day in response to the continued influx of cold air aloft. Whenever this happens, moisture is forced to condense into clouds rather than just hang out in the sky sight unseen.
It's just as well though, because another small system quickly rides in tonight, lasting into Wednesday. It's definitely a drastically different air mass than what we saw over the weekend.
|GFS - Wednesday||NAM - Precipitation Type - Wednesday|
The GFS is indicating a weak clipper system cutting across the lakes, bringing some -10C air with it. This means snowflakes in wave-like bands cutting into the region. Now, most of the lowlands avoid accumulating snows with this, but there is a consistency to this event across the models that gives me more confidence in its arrival. Here's what the NAM is giving us for snowfall:
|NAM - Snowfall Forecast|
After such a marvelous weekend, seeing any flakes at all is probably a little uninspiring, but then again the ski resorts will be just fine continuing another great stretch of skiing. Check out the 7-day below-- temperatures will stay below yesterday's numbers for the rest of the week.
|Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking||
From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image
|Activity Overview||Storm Outlook||Watches||Potential Watches||Storm Reports|
|Temperatures||HD Doppler Radar||Estimated Rainfall||Active Warnings|
|Click For Larger||Click For Interactive Radar||Click For Larger||Click For Larger|
Have a great day everyone!