Coldest morning so far? At least the afternoons thaw out a little

Bundle up when heading out this morning, and probably the rest of the day too :-)

It's Wednesday!

Half-way home, baby :-)

Today features that stone cold weather around here, owing to clear skies and light winds. It reminds me of a song I've probably played before...

Anyway, as I've said before, on nights like this the dew points from the evening are a great indicator of morning low temperatures. Of course, the models also spit out the morning dew points too:

NAM - Dew Points - Wendesday Morning NAM - Dew Points - Thursday Morning

This morning's the coldest, but even tomorrow has a shot for the upper 20s in the holler :-)

High pressure continues to dominate our area, and block storms away from us.

The set-up is pretty interesting, because it will allow a lot of energy to collect off the Atlantic coast, and given the anomalously warm ocean water we've talked about it generates many a storm system over the next week or two. It's not for us, but folks in the New England states are probably pretty tired of it, unless it was going to be snow (but even then).

ECMWF - Height Tendencies (500mb)

This is a map that shows the average of all the runs of the Euro model out the next several days (actually more than a week). Above the surface instead of talking about High and Low "pressure", we talk about "heights". It's a little different but is essentially the same thing. It's now the "height" at which a certain pressure level is attained (in this case, the 500mb level). It's just easier and more informative this way, but Lows are still lows and Highs are still high. We can clearly see a tendency for storms to form and hang around just off the New England coast, with a blocking high pressure to the north between Newfoundland and Greenland. This is an excellent set-up for a New England ski season, it's just a little too bad that we aren't fast-forwarded into December. These patterns don't hold on all winter long, so one would expect the pendulum to swing away from this eventually, but right when you don't want it.

Here's another case in point: The Thanksgiving forecast.

Now that we're getting closer to being a week out, we can start taking a look at it. This is what the Euro is showing:

ECMWF - Thanskgiving Day

A first look shows yet another coastal low heading right up into the New England states. The cold air is still locked up to the north of this system (and actually closer to us), so not as much hope for the wintry weather-- it is early after all. For our area, these storms often clear out our region, but since the model wants to put the cold air back overhead (the red-dashed line near us indicates temperatures that may support snow) we might as well keep an eye on it, right? :-)

Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking

Accuweather Radar

From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image

Activity Overview Storm Outlook Watches Potential Watches Storm Reports
Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active Warnings
Current Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active NWS Warnings
Click For Larger Click For Interactive Radar Click For Larger Click For Larger

Have a great day everyone!



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