Update (9/30) - A quick update here... Sunday is starting off on-schedule: Fog poking around the Kanawha valley and in southeastern Kentucky, but otherwise mostly sunny skies starting off another great weekend day. It looks pretty good this afternoon for most of us. Highs will be in the lower 70s, with a touch of puffy cumulus clouds in the afternoon. We'll be watching for the influence of the vigorous upper-level low rotating across the Great Lakes this afternoon, and we'll see just how far south it can scare up showers (not expected to make it down here, perhaps up around Route 50 in the far north). In the coming days, we'll get some showers back in here for real though-- but that's okay when we get a nice weekend in! :-)
Happy Saturday everyone!
Yesterday's nagging rainfall certainly hung around a little longer than desired/anticipated, but we did get the breaking clouds in the north toward the end of the day. Here's a picture from Vinton county showing the sunshine slipping quickly toward the horizon.
Because many areas received betwee 1" and 1.5" of rain, we're waking up to some patchy dense fog, particularly south of I-64 where the showers lingered the longest.
Today will continue to break out the clouds and welcome back sunshine. Generally, Saturday is going to be a pleasant day, but the best part of the weekend will be the second-half of Saturday through to the first half of Sunday.
|HPC - Surface Map - Saturday PM|
You can kind of see the squeeze-play that is a-foot here, threading the needle between the weak area low pressure developing along the slowly sagging front to our south and the even weaker trough lines to the north. It doesn't leave much room to move around, but it will be enough to nose in some sunshine. Folks traveling to the game in Morgantown should not encounter much of any problems once any remaining fog clears out.
Now Sunday presents an interesting wrinkle to the forecast. Here's a model product that shows what I'm looking at:
|GFS - 500mb Chart - Sunday AM|
...It's that vorticity stuff again. This map is looking at a slice of the atmosphere at about 3.5 miles above the surface. You'll notice a really pronounced blob of the red (positive vorticity) rotating around the base of the circles created by the black lines. This is a big-time agitator of the skies, and will flare up any little thing Sunday afternoon when it gets here-- but just to our north.
|NAM - Sunday Morning||NAM - Sunday Afternoon|
The NAM model is showing the flare-up nicely, and given the amount of turbulence aloft, I envision a lot of prickly showers on the Doppler with isolated cells good enough for thunder. However, most of these will be north of US Route-50 (interior Ohio and West Virginia. The rest of us will see a deck of puffy cumulus clouds with a much reduced threat for a brief shower.
Looking ahead to Monday, we'll see another pulse of moisture coming up from the south, but that's still a ways away-- so let's enjoy the weekend when we can. Judging from the weather on Friday and Monday, it certainly could have been worse :-)
|Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking||
From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image
|Activity Overview||Storm Outlook||Watches||Potential Watches||Storm Reports|
|Temperatures||HD Doppler Radar||Estimated Rainfall||Active Warnings|
|Click For Larger||Click For Interactive Radar||Click For Larger||Click For Larger|
Have a great day everyone!