Updated for Flash Flood Watch (below)
Happy Wednesday everyone...just a few more days to go :-)
Something I say often: If you want to have a nice weekend, you gotta get that rain in on Wednesday and Thursday. Well, this holds fairly well a fair amount of the time ;-) and it looks like it will hold sway for part of the weekend as well...But first thing's first.
We've got showers on our hands, and it's because of the same system that brought the patchy showers and storms from last night. A cold front advanced into the area, but never quite left:
|HPC Wednesday AM||HPC Wednesday PM||HPC Thursday AM|
Some of the messier weather will be with us in the first part of the day, but expect scattered showers and storms to never be too far away because that front does not make it that far beyond us. In the summer-time this becomes some one of the more annoying weather patterns to forecast. I personally prefer the North-South oriented cold-fronts that sort of "plow" through the area. They are easier to forecast and based on more dramatic contrasts of air (unfortunately, they also bring more severe weather in the summer-- just look at the severe weather being brought by the more N/S oriented cold front in the deep south *hint, tornados near Dallas yesterday). Overall, because the moisture is spread out across a couple of days, the threat for flooding will be low-- but you can always get a gully washing if you get a good thunderstorm overtop of you. Here's what is expected for rainfall:
|HAS Precipitation Forecast||HPC Precipitation Forecast|
It's going to take a little more than that to cause wide-spread flooding, but the folks in the isolated spots in Eastern KY that got flash flood warnings yesterday can tell you that it's certainly possible in the right combination of events.
Looking beyond this toward your easter weekend, we're going to experience the effects of the cooler weather. In fact, we'll actually see temperatures that will feel below normal (just a bit) for this time of year.
|GFS - Temperature Anomalies - Thurs PM||GFS - Temperature Anomalies - Fri PM||GFS - Temperature Anomalies - Sat PM|
Now that we're into early April, this is not exactly shivering weather, so getting the sunshine back with weather like this will probably make for some great Easter-Egg hunting weather. We just gotta get these showers out first ;-)
Full suite of tracking tools today...
Update 8:00am - The National Weather Service has issued a "Flash Flood Watch" for the counties along and south of I-64 today (see maps below). Some parts for this reason have already received a saturating rain from yesterday, and others are more typically find themselves susceptible to flash flooding. Be careful when water may be found to cross the roadways in front of you. As they say, "turn around, don't drown" as water only a 1/2-foot deep can pick up a car. I will post the flash flood guidance for parts of the area when an updated version comes out.
Update 10:30am - Here are the Flash Flood Guidance numbers for selected counties in our area:
So the flash flooding threat is not only apparent by way of seeing which land areas are the most saturated, but also from lining up where the bulk of the rains are going to fall with the highest population vulnerable to flash flooding. The southwestern mountain counties and the eastern Kentucky coal fields are typically more vulnerable with population centers along rivers backed up against mountains. During the day today, the rains will eventually cover more territory, and the downpours will be the threat within them, but until then, many folks will be looking up at the sky and seeing partial sunshine and a nice humid day. Just keep in mind as we go forward in the day, you should probably keep an eye on the radar if you're going to be out for an extended period of time.
|Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking||
From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image
|Activity Overview||Storm Outlook||Watches||Potential Watches||Storm Reports|
|Temperatures||HD Doppler Radar||Estimated Rainfall||Active Warnings|
|Click For Larger||Click For Interactive Radar||Click For Larger||Click For Larger|
Have a great day everyone!