Could we see our first prolonged wet period of our summer soon?

Now that our temperatures have returned to normal there's one more element to our weather still out of whack: Precipitation. Many areas have a deficit of several inches going into this week-- something about which the current forecast has a lot to say.

Happy Tuesday everyone!

Hopefully you've been able to get outside for a spell (shower or not) to sample the not-90 and not-100 degree weather we've now received. There are still folks without power, notably in Kanawha and Clay counties, but they are expected to be restored as soon as today.

Our weather map continues to feature the front that came through here later Sunday now stalled out just to our south. This will provide the breeding ground for more showers and storms. The higher-res NAM model continues to indicate that this will primarily stay in the southlands and over toward the eastern mountains:

NAM - Tuesday Afternoon NAM - Wednesday Afternoon

Many folks in the far south are not rushing to receive these showers (they're not as hard up for it as the I-64 corridor). At least it's not going to get out of hand, and the showers we do get are great for the crops, gardens, and lawns out there.

Wednesday afternoon still features one of the better chances of sunshine this week (certainly highest in the north and west). But more showers are on the horizon, perhaps most easily explained by looking at the relative humidity model products by the GFS:

GFS - Relative Humidity (700mb level) - Wednesday AM GFS - Relative Humidity (700mb level) - Friday PM

The axis of moisture is carried along from the western Gulf of Mexico this week, and mainly stays just to our south. However, on Thursday night and Friday some lifting northward oocurs, putting the threat of moisture back into the forecast. We'll be watching this during the week-- so far not for the threat of severe weather, but the county fair season is under-way :-)

Another map that underscores the point I want to make is a newer projection by HPC regarding rainfall this week. Have a look:

HPC - Multiday Rainfall Projections - Ending Saturday Morning

From the last runs through the above rendering, the zone of best rianfall is shifting northward. Because the threat for severe weather still remains low with this one, many of us should see this as beneficial considering the drought situation. We'll have to be tip-toe-ing around in other cases, because we want all the little league ballfields and county fairgrounds to stay dry and open ;-)

But through it all, we do not go back to the 90s. We might as well start counting up a streak of not 90-and-above days. We might even get up to seven!

Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking

Accuweather Radar

From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image

Activity Overview Storm Outlook Watches Potential Watches Storm Reports
Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active Warnings
Current Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active NWS Warnings
Click For Larger Click For Interactive Radar Click For Larger Click For Larger

Have a great day everyone!



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