We've certainly had better weekends, but it's not all bad.
Showers and storms are possible at any time and place within this very tropical air mass, but do not expect a constant downpour nor a rain-out. Now that school is entering its final week these weekend days are starting to fill up with all sorts of fun outdoor activities. I would hate to see someone change their plans and come to regret it when the skies turn out partly sunny instead, because that will be the most common sky condition. These showers have been following a "diurnal" cycle for the most part-- here's what I mean:
|Meteogram - Charleston - Temperature|
|Meteogram - Charleston - Precipitation|
These "meteograms" examine various computer models in terms of a single specific variable over the course of time. I've walked it back a couple days so you can see how it's been verifying (the black dots). The main thing I want you to see here is the up-and-down nature of our temperature-- hottest typically in the afternoon and coldest near dawn. Obviously, this is related to the Sun's heating, but more often than not in a tropical air mass the showers themselves are also timed with that max heating window of the afternoon. The difference between the morning low temperature and the afternoon high is called the 'diurnal' and when showers target the afternoon the most, morning the least, and is part of a persistent pattern, we call it a 'diurnal cycle' of showers. Here's how the latest models are characterizing the weekend:
|NAM - Saturday Morning||NAM - Saturday Afternoon|
|NAM - Sunday Morning||NAM - Sunday Afternoon|
The atmosphere is at its least stable each afternoon, hence the flare-up of showers and storms. However, the air is still moist and warm at all hours of the day, so leftover showers from the day before can certainly still live into the start of the day.
The bad news is that some folks can get a good downpour suitable for spot flooding problems in poor drainage areas... But the good news is that projected rainfall totals are not things on which to base the forecast in this case. Most of the day will be just fine, with partly/mostly cloudy skies-- only a small portion will be affected by rain. But, when it rains, it'll most likely pour. Obviously this will catch some of us outside when we've been hoping the most for dry weather (for example, if you're putting together a backyard swingset), but that's the nature of the beast. Severe weather is not expected with this mess either, so that's another thing we have going for us.
It's tough to find a break in this weather pattern, as another wet weather-maker is lining up for next week, but as of now Monday is looking as our best bet for a dry day. Temperatures will spike whenever we do get that break (expect mid-80s at least), which will load in more storm energy for the next round.
Here's to hoping your outdoor events stay dry, while someone else is getting the rain ;-)
Feel free to keep tabs of the showers using the tracking maps below [note, I've been hearing that these images below have recently not been showing up correctly on Internet Explorer. I use the Firefox browser-- I've been told that IE "does things" to normal web programming. I'm currently working on a fix. Perhaps try it out on Firefox instead until then.]
|Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking||
From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image
|Activity Overview||Storm Outlook||Watches||Potential Watches||Storm Reports|
|Temperatures||HD Doppler Radar||Estimated Rainfall||Active Warnings|
|Click For Larger||Click For Interactive Radar||Click For Larger||Click For Larger|
Have a great day everyone!