Updated below (most recent 7:30am)
Good Thursday Morning everyone!
It's the start of school for my kids today, and no doubt for many of you as well. Yesterday's gray skies did not bring much rain outside of a brief downpour here and there, but it was the beginning of our new weather pattern.
Checking the rainfall projections, we're still in line for a decent drink of water between now and the end of the week.
HPC - Rainfall Projections - 48hours
So far, verification on these have been on the light side. Today's coverage of showers will be more than yesterday, which was more than the day before. A weak front is approaching which should help do the trick to scare up these showers. Unfortunately, it will not finish out of our area, effectively stalling out right along I-79. This means another push of energy will have to come by, bring showers and storms, and kick this thing eastward.
Here's what the scene looks like on Friday afternoon:
NAM - Friday Afternoon
Continuing from yesterday's blog post about the upcoming weekend, the models are still swaying back and forth on just how good this final push-through of drier air at mid-levels will be. The latest runs are now favoring a little better prospects for sunshine on Sunday-- which is something I prefer more anyway given the low climatological regularity of constant shower zones setting up for days on end. Here's the relative humidity picture at the 700mb-level (~ 10,000ft. up) for Sunday as it stands now on the GFS:
Less than 10% relative humidity often means sunshine, while naturally greater than 90% amounts are where the showers are found. The best prospects for our Sunday weather are for our northern counties.
Note on July: Most of our region received between 7 and 10" of rainfall during the month-- surprisingly with no actual big river floods (though obviously some of the smaller streams and creeks did their thing, for example in Spencer, WV). For Parkersburg, Huntington, and Charleston, that qualifies for a top-ten wettest month at all sites. Tony Cavalier blogs about how this rain is leading toward a pretty nice growing season so far.
Update (7:30am) - The National Weather Service offices in Charleston, WV and Jackson, KY have issued Flash Flood Watches for much of the area through Saturday morning. What's going on here is a desire for heightened awareness regarding these roving downpours some will experience over the next few days. There isn't a whole lot of steering current aloft, so any downpours that do spring up in the tropical air will be allowed to soak the ground. The good news is that most of us can handle upwards of 2.5" of rain before we start seeing problems. Let's just hope we stay under such a threshold. :-)
(See the counties that are under the Flash Flood Watch in the maps below)
Have a great day everyone!