Deep Cold and Talk of Snow

The last two weeks of January are typically the coldest of the year, but does this also mean we're finally turning the tide with snowfall..?

Back to Monday-- and it's a coold one!

Well, actually, the coldest air of the season arrives during the day today and we'll be plunged into the ice-box tonight. We talked about this back on January 6th, believe-it-or-not :-). Check out the 7-day forecast below for our numbers, but here's a look at the high temperatures from the GFS model:

GFS - Max Temps - Monday GFS - Max Temps - Tuesday GFS - Max Temps - Wednesday

Remember, these are high temperatures for the day. Fortunately, the air mass modifies a little bit as it moves through so that we don't see those -10 type numbers brought too far eastward, but it will be the coldest we've seen (so be prepared).

In this environment, any wind coming in from a northwest vantage-point will have the opportunity for some light, fluffy snowfall. The farther north and closer to the mountains you are, the better, but we're only talking about coatings, dustings, and such (note: in the high mountains and ski slopes, 1"-2" is a 'coating') ;-)

The Elephant In The Room...

Okay, all the talk I've been seeing from all you wonderful model watchers out there is about the end of the week weather. Specifically, the prospects for 'real' snowfall. Well, let's take a look at what those models are saying right now...

GFS - Thursday Evening GFS - Friday Afternoon
CMC - Friday Early AM CMC - Friday Afternoon
ECMWF - Friday AM
ECMWF - Friday PM

With each model, I've varied the time a little bit, and with the Euro I've drawn in the fronts. If you are confused about what each map is trying to show, please ask about it in the comments-- I occasionally expand on things like this during long dry spells, but we haven't had a long break just yet. Always something going on these days, right?

Okay, first thing I want you to know is that the specific timing shouldn't be taken as gospel. These models can often speed up or slow down a little, which after several days can turn into a 1/2 day or more of a diference.

Next thing I want you to see is that every model is currently calling for an initial shot of rainfall with temperatures spiking out ahead of the cold front and the low-pressure center riding just to our north. This is where we should start the conversation with this coming event, as snow-lovers should know that any little thing that gets in the way of a snowstorm in the tri-state usually ends up being the key in the end. It's rare that a storm flips from rain to snow from long to short range-- but it certainly can happen.

Now, we are looking at snowfall eventually coming into the picture, as the models are all calling for a rain-to-snow changeover during the day Friday. You should know how that deal typically goes as well, as it will end up being a matter of how much moisture is left in place when the temperatures cool enough.

This one will be a topic of conversation this week ;-)

Looking ahead to the next week, can we keep the cold going..?

6-10 Day Outlook - Temperature 6-10 Day Outlook - Precipitation

Looks like we'll be in the middle somewhere (but this time of year that's still good for snow). More importantly, the models are calling for an increase of moisture in the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Hopefully that helps us get into February on the right foot.

Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking

Accuweather Radar

From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image

Activity Overview Storm Outlook Watches Potential Watches Storm Reports
Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active Warnings
Current Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active NWS Warnings
Click For Larger Click For Interactive Radar Click For Larger Click For Larger

Have a great day everyone!

-B

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