Happy Tuesday to one and all...
The weather map and forecast scenario look very similar to what they did yesterday. The NAM is still advertising the rain line pushed well north of us due to the inflow of warm air from the south.
|NAM - Tuesday Morning||NAM - Wednesday Afternoon|
...It's not that we'll have a completely clean sweep though. With every warm front lift comes a little convergence along the line. These are expected to be just temporary nuisance stuff with most of the actual juice simply loading up back west for an arrival during the day Thursday.
|GFS - Thursday Morning||GFS - Thursday Evening||GFS - Friday Morning|
As we said yesterday, we'll be riding up into the 80s and then crashing down through the 50s courtesy of this storm system. It's a true-form spring fling that we'll be going through, so the only aspect left over is how good the risk of thunder will be. The Storm Prediction Center will be updating their outlook later today, so hopefully I can update this post to reflect it, but the latest modeling has this line heading through during a time of better heating than yesterday's runs.
|NAM - Lifted Index - Thursday Afternoon|
This "lifted Index" is a measure of instability, with the more negative the numbers the more unstable the air. In the winter/early spring these are fairly decent, but for late-spring/summer they are kind of weak. Nevertheless, thunder is a good starting point expectation for these showers.
The other thing you should expect are cooler temperatures this weekend. Don't put those sweaters away just yet :-)
|Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking||
From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image
|Activity Overview||Storm Outlook||Watches||Potential Watches||Storm Reports|
|Temperatures||HD Doppler Radar||Estimated Rainfall||Active Warnings|
|Click For Larger||Click For Interactive Radar||Click For Larger||Click For Larger|
Have a great day everyone!