Dry and Warm before Thursday's Storms

Our pendulum swing to unseasonable warmth continues, as does the monitoring of Thursday's skies for thunder...

Happy Tuesday to one and all...

The weather map and forecast scenario look very similar to what they did yesterday. The NAM is still advertising the rain line pushed well north of us due to the inflow of warm air from the south.

NAM - Tuesday Morning NAM - Wednesday Afternoon

...It's not that we'll have a completely clean sweep though. With every warm front lift comes a little convergence along the line. These are expected to be just temporary nuisance stuff with most of the actual juice simply loading up back west for an arrival during the day Thursday.

GFS - Thursday Morning GFS - Thursday Evening GFS - Friday Morning

As we said yesterday, we'll be riding up into the 80s and then crashing down through the 50s courtesy of this storm system. It's a true-form spring fling that we'll be going through, so the only aspect left over is how good the risk of thunder will be. The Storm Prediction Center will be updating their outlook later today, so hopefully I can update this post to reflect it, but the latest modeling has this line heading through during a time of better heating than yesterday's runs.

NAM - Lifted Index - Thursday Afternoon

This "lifted Index" is a measure of instability, with the more negative the numbers the more unstable the air. In the winter/early spring these are fairly decent, but for late-spring/summer they are kind of weak. Nevertheless, thunder is a good starting point expectation for these showers.

The other thing you should expect are cooler temperatures this weekend. Don't put those sweaters away just yet :-)

Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking

Accuweather Radar

From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image

Activity Overview Storm Outlook Watches Potential Watches Storm Reports
Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active Warnings
Current Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active NWS Warnings
Click For Larger Click For Interactive Radar Click For Larger Click For Larger

Have a great day everyone!

-B

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