Fall comes in chilly this morning. Even colder tonight

Temperatures will start off the day in the 30s, but with a frost advisory in effect for points north/west tonight will be every bit as chilly as well. At least it's dry.

Good Sunday morning one and all.

Thanks for stopping by the blog to get up to date on all things weather in the tri-state.

A large area of high pressure has once again plunged in from Canada, and it will take its time moving in and through the area. Here's how it looks on the HPC Surface Map today:

HPC - Surface Map - Sunday PM

Notice the "Lake Effect" engines whirring up there along the shores of all five Great Lakes. It can happen with rain showers just as it can for snowflakes. You can bet there will be some mountain clouds popping in today with that fetch off the lakes hitting our slopes.

Now, to the temperatures... Today will end up about 10-15 degrees below normal in the afternoon (squarely in the 60s), but its the overnight lows that have most of our concern. Several readings around the region dipped into the 30s this morning. Here's a look at how overnight lows can be anticipated on nights that are incredibly crisp and clear:

NAM - Temperature And Dewpoint - Sunday AM

Typically the lowest temperature of such days occurs around 7am, right as the Sun is coming up. In the above model products, "temperature" is on the left, and "dew point" is on the right. The "dew point" is a number that represents what the air temperature would need to drop to in order for the air to become saturated (and form dew or fog, etc.). Well, on nights with lots of radiational cooling, the air temperature will sink right to the dew point, at which point it becomes difficult to drop lower without a great amount of fog and such out there. This morning's dew points were in the 30s, so it was quite reasonable to expect our morning air temperatures to be right there as well. Even the "temperature" model product on the left didn't get this completely right, probably because it doesn't handle strong radiational cooling nights that well (in the meteorology world, we call that a model "bias").

Anyway, here's the forecasted dew points for tomorrow morning:

NAM - Dew Points - Monday AM

Notice in interior Ohio... Dew points dropping into the mid-30s. No wonder there's a frost advisory out there. Keep checking the maps below to see if your area comes under a frost advisory tonight. It's getting to be that time of year where you have to protect the tender vegetation, bring in those potted plants, and the like.

At least one thing we know-- on great radiational cooling nights we aren't worried about any precipitation. So, enjoy the great fall afternoon!

Special Note: Now that fall is officially here, I'm going to do a recap on the Summer season prediction. You're going to notice some interesting things that confounds this type of prediction range. Check for it later today...and as a reference, here's what I said back then...

Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking

Accuweather Radar

From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image

Activity Overview Storm Outlook Watches Potential Watches Storm Reports
Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active Warnings
Current Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active NWS Warnings
Click For Larger Click For Interactive Radar Click For Larger Click For Larger

Have a great day everyone!


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