Happy Father's Day to all you dads and grand-dads and the families that love them :-)
There are a lot of us out there that have had this day marked for a while for a nice get-out-of-the-house kind of time. Fishing, golfing, camping, going to a ballgame, etc.
Yeah, now we have to worry about showers showing up. Great.
In the morning there is a weak warm front dissipating as it lifts north through the area (probably won't make it all the way before fading completely), but a few showers will spot up in eastern Kentucky. A cold front will scrape the area from the north with a better opportunity for showers and storms later in the day. Here are some simulated radar snapshots:
|NAM - HiRes SimRadar - Sunday 2pm||NAM - HiRes SimRadar - Sunday Late
||NAM - HiRes SimRadar - Early Monday
Tee times look more threatened early Monday than they do this morning, but still, if you're going to be outdoors and far from "indoors" today, check the radar before you head out-- or get the WSAZ app on your phone to check the weather wherever you might be.
There's a complicating factor for shower/storm formation on the West Virginia side of our tri-state area, and it shows up well on this map from the NAM:
|NAM - Windflow - Sunday AM|
If you super-impose where the mountains themselves are, the 'streamlines' that indicate windflow would appear to come right down those mountains in the Kanawha Valley area. This would have a drying effect on the air, and can inhibit storm formation or presevation. Further to the west, in eastern Kentucky, the effect is not as pronounced, with winds coming in from the southwest-- expect showers and storms to have an easier time staying together there.
All in all, this is not expected to be a big event, but I suppose anything that has the possibility of bringing a shower to the region is noteworthy. We'll be on the other side of this thing by late Monday, and it's back to the heat on Tuesday.
There is an opportunity for a "Heat Wave" to show up this week. The 'official' definition around here is three straight days of 90+ temperatures. The best candidates would be Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. There will eventually be cause for some afternoon pop-ups in the heat of the day, but a high pressure ridge will be entrenched at all levels trying to tamp that threat down. The GFS shows this pretty well later on this week:
|GFS - 700mb / Relative Humidity - Thursday|
The major storm system on the map this week will be passing us by well to the north and west through Minnesota, while this area of high pressure showing up at 700mb (around 10,000feet) keeps our action down. Notice we're not in the completely dry (brown) air, so an afternoon storm popping up in the mountains will be coming back into the cards. The 'next best shot' for widespread rainfall may not happen until Friday.
After a cool shot to begin the month, it looks like the earlier predictions of a warmer/dryer summer are getting back on track.
|Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking||
From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image
|Activity Overview||Storm Outlook||Watches||Potential Watches||Storm Reports|
|Temperatures||HD Doppler Radar||Estimated Rainfall||Active Warnings|
|Click For Larger||Click For Interactive Radar||Click For Larger||Click For Larger|
Have a great day everyone!