Final Thoughts And Numbers On Approaching Snow Event

The storm arrives today, but it's the rain and wind part. Snow begins Friday, and lasts into Saturday for some. Check out this post to see who's shoveling, and who gets disappointed.

Good Thursday to one and all.

I put up a post yesterday on this advancing storm. Check it out to see the technical discussion as it relates to how the snow will develop. I'm going to post my "final" thoughts on the storm here below that build on yesterday's assessment.

Storm Timing...

NAM - Thursday PM NAM - Friday AM NAM - Friday PM

(Click on any of the above images for a larger one)

The change-over from rain to snow will not happen in one big crazy line, but instead will come after a little break, as the 'dry slot' of the storm system moves through. By Friday morning the flakes will be flying in many spots, thickening up during the day. The winds will be whipping as well, gusting as high as 50mph on the higher mountain tops. This could create blizzard conditions at times on those elevated slopes. Notice that dramatically less will be going on closer to the Ohio River, which is a fact of life seen often with these up-slope events. As said yesterday, so long as the windflow can connect the warm waters of Lake Michigan to the River Cities area, they will be seeing snowflakes.

 NAM - Saturday AM  NAM - Saturday PM
   

Click on any of the above images for a larger one.

During the day Saturday, that windflow becomes more exclusively tied to Lake Erie, which means the lake-effect components retreat just to the WV mountains. Given the gusty winds, it will still be a steady snow in those areas, coming to a close Saturday night on the ski slope terrain.

Important note: Given the up-slope nature of this event, ANY elevated terrain, particularly NW facing slopes, will get a little more than anyone else around. This will hold true even on localized hills.

"Last Call" Forecast Numbers

The first thing I will do, is post snowfall accumulation numbers from other sources, before giving my own. You can track how they've changed (or not) by viewing yesterday's blog post.

GFS - Snowfall Projection NAM - Snowfall Projection NWS - Snowfall Projection

The models (and the National Weather Service) are all on the "up-slope" theme. Ergo, if you aren't on an up-slope, you will have a lot less snowfall than those favored elevated areas. It's always a little trickier in Ohio, as there isn't as much terrain craziness, but it's not as necessary given that it's closer to the lakes themselves.

Here are my numbers from yesterday morning:

I'm inclined to stick with these numbers, emphasizing the big contrast between the valley floors close to the Ohio River, and the elevated terrain of the WV mountains. Just like yesterday though, I want to point out that any elevated hill or ridgetop (even in KY) can get an extra inch or two compared to their neighbors just because of the way the windflow enhances precipitation. Use your snowfall totals from Superstorm Sandy as a guide. If you found yourself getting more than others around you during that event, you can almost bank on having it happen again here.

Feel free to post your questions, comments, and your reports in the discussion section below. I will participate below, and update the blog as needed. Stay tuned for webcams and the like, coming soon. :-)

Here's to hoping everyone who wants a White Christmas gets what they want from this storm, and manages to hold onto it for a few more days. For everyone else, please be safe on those roadways!

Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking

Accuweather Radar

From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image

Activity Overview Storm Outlook Watches Potential Watches Storm Reports
Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active Warnings
Current Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active NWS Warnings
Click For Larger Click For Interactive Radar Click For Larger Click For Larger

Have a great day everyone!

-B

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