Happy first weekend of "Summer".
I know a lot of us have different ideas as to when the unofficial beginning and ending of summer is, often putting summer thoughts in mind well before June 21st-- and of course the end well before late September. I prefer a Memorial Day to Labor Day time-frame, but I've heard it said that "summer ends at the 4th of July" (that's a little pessimistic for me).
Like we had yesterday, most of us steamed up with the heat but a few will see a pop-up shower or even thunderstorm. What is happening here is a gentle flow in from the south or southwest...
NAM - Surface Winds - Saturday Afternoon
This gently presses air up the southern mountains during the course of the day. Eventually, this lift is able to make use of whatever moisture is available in the sky. Combined with the heating of the ground (like a hot-air balloon being warmed), we'll get the puffy clouds going and eventually a few will be good enough for shower activity.
NAM - Precipitation/850mb Temperatures - Saturday Afternoon
Whenever the models pop in some rain showers during the afternoon like this, don't take the specific locations as gospel. Yesterday we had them fire in Mingo, Logan, etc. and we can very well see that again today as well as the mountains of Nicholas, Webster, and Pocahontas counties. Anyone who does get a shower or storm will cool down as much as 15-20 degeres underneath those clouds, but it's not going to occupy a large part of the day.
Each day that these "air-mass thunderstorms" occur, they further destabilize the atmosphere for the next day. Meaning, once this process starts if we keep the surface heating going there'll be another round of increasingly widespread pop-up showers and storms waiting for us in the next day. Sunday's model projection emphasizes this point with its coverage of storms built up on Friday and Saturday's afternoon convection:
NAM - Sunday Afternoon
Outside of these showers, temperatures will still make a run at the 90-degree mark. Sunday is the better day for these afternoon showers and storms, but most of the day will still be dry as this convection engine takes time to get going.
Our weather pattern continues to stay very summer-like indeed, with the scattered afternoon storms firing during the heating hours of the day. There are many little dynamics associated with these that all serve to spread the wealth around, but most of the time the usual suspects are elevated terrain on the winward facing sides. This sort of thing may well be on the menu all the way through the next week in varying amounts.
GFS - Friday Afternoon
A cold front tied to a Canadian area of low pressure looks to drag through late next week. It would be nice to see this squeegee out all the moisture overhead (provided it doesn't get hung up in the Appalachians like has been known to happen as well). We've got plenty of time to watch this, just like we have plenty of time each day to be poolside!
Have a great day everyone!