Following the last of the showers, a noticeably cooler Memorial Weekend

Dry days are returning, but the mornings won't feel anything like late May...

Friday is here -- and for an increasing number of students it's also the first weekend of "Freedom"!

Early risers may see the last of the showers from our large system that has gripped the country this past week. There is still one more important effect of this storm that is yet to come:

HPC - Surface Map - Friday Afternoon

In meteorology this classic drop-down of high pressure filling in the void behind a deep trough is a dead-ringer for an unseasonable chill. In late May, this becomes most apparent in the morning hours, as even a 10-degree below normal day is quite pleasant when it comes to afternoon temperatures. Check out some of these numbers from the GFS:

GFS - Min Temps - Saturday Morning GFS - Min Temps - Sunday Morning GFS - Min Temps - Monday Morning

Campers are not going to like this-- be sure to pack the sweaters! High altitude hikers or fans of the ski resorts may well want to pay attention to Snowshoe Mountain's webcam this morning, in case more flakes fly (I would not be surprised at near 5,000-feet altitude.

Fans of the European forecast model may well recall that a few weeks back we actually talked about this very day, as it showed up just as chilly on the 240-hour forecast map. Here's how the maps look then and now:

ECMWF - 850mb Chart - From May 14th projecting to May 24th ECMWF - 850mb Chart - Friday May 24th

You have to admit, that's quite a consistent performance from 10-days out until now. Even back then I had my doubts that this would verify, but it's looking pretty good on both time and intensity. Like I said back then, the important part is that we'd be out of the crop-damaging frost/freeze situation even with this type of cold coming in, but there will be 30s being reported in parts of the tri-state. Examples like this are why many forecasters gravitate toward the ECMWF (Euro) for their mid-range forecasting needs. In fact, it may well have become transcendent, like the Farmer's Almanac-- where you only recall examples in which is was right, forgetting any time that it was off (or way off).

The best opportunity for full sunshine will be from later today through Saturday (as shown in the 7-day below). There aren't any major travel-hassle weather scenarios in the greater Mid-Atlantic / Ohio Valley region, so bon voyage! We'll go into more detail on the full holiday weekend forecast in the very next blog post.

Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking

Accuweather Radar

From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image

Activity Overview Storm Outlook Watches Potential Watches Storm Reports
Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active Warnings
Current Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active NWS Warnings
Click For Larger Click For Interactive Radar Click For Larger Click For Larger

Have a great day everyone!



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