Updates Below (most recent 6:00pm)
We're still watching the showers this morning as they slowly scrape away to the east. Most additional rainfall will be sagging south and out, with sunshine cracking back in during the afternoon.
|NAM - Tuesday AM||NAM - Tuesday PM|
High pressure returns for the middle part of the week, though it is actually sinking air in the outflow of "Isaac" as it makes its approach:
|GFS - 700mb Chart - Thursday PM||GFS - Surface Chart - Thursday PM|
Notice the solid swath of humidity associated with Isaac as it moves up the Mississippi valley. Notice also the region of subsidence and dry air around the edges of the storms outflow. Our area is going to be under this spell for Wednesday and Thursday. The rain itself will not be in town just yet.
The Latest On Isaac
Speaking of Isaac, here are the particulars on the storm, much like we had yesterday:
|NHC - Hurricane Isaac - Current Information And Forecast Track||Wunderground - Hurricane Isaac - Computer Models
It's intersting that the model consensus (on the right) has the track bending back down into the Tennessee Valley to die, despite no individual model run indicating that solution. This would certainly represent a solid drought-drencher for that area (well-deserved by the way). I would also note many of the model members show tracks up and over our area, rather than through it-- that doesn't necessarily bode well for some of our own drought-parched areas to see the targeted tropical rains either.
|GFS - Tropical - Tuesday Afternoon||HPC - Tropical - "Isaac" Rainfall Projection
The forecast picture (as of this writing) still has the New Orleans area eerily expected to be hit seven years to the day of Hurricane Katrina, though this storm is forecasted to be not only weaker than Katrina, but weaker than Isaac itself was some hours ago. Nevertheless, a Category 1 status hurricane is nothing to sneeze at when it comes to channeling rainfall (as indicated by the right-hand model).
So... When does Isaac's rain look to get here now?
|GFS - Saturday Morning|
I know this puts a 'damper' on our Labor Day weekend, but we do need the rain. For those unwilling to make this deal with the devil, at least you know we've got plenty of time to keep an eye on this in case there's any changes. One of the possible solutions is that this thing lifts up through the Ohio Valley to our west, leaving us on the outside looking in. That would represent a contrast where the weekend forecast could be rainy and in the low 80s, or partly sunny, humid, and in the upper 80s.
Update (6:00pm) - I wanted to post a webcam of the Lake Pontchartrain area of New Orleans that should update every minute or so... The lake-side is the place where hurricane Isaac's storm surge can complicate things (in addition to any canalway). It's not expected to be a problem, but as you can see already, the water is rising...
|Webcam - Lake Pontchartrain - From the Causeway|
Naturally when it gets dark, so will this cam :-)
I'll see if I can find others for the blog post for tomorrow... (posted at midnight)
|Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking||
From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image
|Activity Overview||Storm Outlook||Watches||Potential Watches||Storm Reports|
|Temperatures||HD Doppler Radar||Estimated Rainfall||Active Warnings|
|Click For Larger||Click For Interactive Radar||Click For Larger||Click For Larger|
Have a great day everyone!