Happy Wednesday everyone!
I know it doesn't seem possible to folks reading this who live in the River-Cities area, but many folks did get rain yesterday (and the day before, etc)... Just check out the 'estimated rainfall' map below. It logs everything over a rolling 24-hour period.
Today, we're not going to see showers. The Sun is back, and hopefully some cooler temperatures too (though I don't think we'll quite get to 'cool-er' unless we stir up some breezes.
Our weather pattern is going to take a turn for the stagnant-- which happens often in mid-summer form. I suppose we might as well be. Here's an interesting map I haven't shown before that is informative here:
|Ensemble Spaghetti Plot - 500mb - Saturday|
A couple things about this map: First, Ensemble refers to the idea of running a computer model a multiple of times to get a multiple of potential solutions, each time slightly varying the initial start conditions. Just like we don't have a thermometer every 10 feet over the whole Earth, it's impossible to get the 'start conditions' exactly right for a computer model. But, by creating an "ensemble" of "members" that are slight perturbations to one side or the other of each other, you can safely see the envelope of possible solutions (and the average). A spaghetti plot refers to an image with all the ensemble members on it. In this instance, I'm looking at different 500mb height values (the same thing as looking for ridges and troughs at the surface, with the added benefit of getting a peek at the jet-stream too). Early on in a forecast model, the "members" will all closely resemble the mean value for an ensemble plot, but a few days out can demonstrate how the different initial conditions can cause noticeable differences in how the weather is resolved by the models. If anyone has heard of the "Butterfly Effect", it is described awfully well by a spaghetti plot at day 7 or 8 in the summertime (they're all over the place).
Now, as for what the map is actually showing us, we've got a fairly entrenched ridge overtop of us, with a streamflow that takes any notable storm system up and over us into Canada. This will keep temperatures above normal, and the humidity too.
Here's another way of describing what the next several days will be like:
|HPC - Multi-day Total Rainfall Projection - Through Sunday PM|
Ugh! ... Some folks at zero-zip-nada, while others scraping a grand total of a meaningless < 0.10" (and given the grid-resolution of this projection, you can probably guess we're at the low end of that anyway).
In the coming days I will be posting a look at our drought potential, as this is definitely going to become a question that comes up.
To keep tabs on the day, check out the continuously updating maps below:
|Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking||
From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image
|Activity Overview||Storm Outlook||Watches||Potential Watches||Storm Reports|
|Temperatures||HD Doppler Radar||Estimated Rainfall||Active Warnings|
|Click For Larger||Click For Interactive Radar||Click For Larger||Click For Larger|
Have a great day everyone!
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