Welcome to your Friday-- you've made it!
And just in time, we've got some great June weather lined up.
Made to order indeed. I know it hasn't been for everyone, but the few folks that have been bothered by the scattered afternoon showers that have roamed around each day this week will be quite pleased. Better the Sun on the weekend than during the week, I say.
High pressure traverses the tri-state on its way to its usual location in the Carolinas (or just offshore from there). This effectively shuts off the pop-up showers. In fact, here's the HPC multi-day rainfall projection:
|HPC - Total Rainfall - Now thru Tuesday|
The green in West Virginia indicates less than 0.10" of rain-- over a several-day period. This, and the rainfall totals to the west of it are heavily weighted to Tuesday itself, because that's when the rain heads back in. Until the showers get here, each day will be slightly warmer and more humid than the one before it. This puts us in the 90-degree range by Sunday, and again for Monday. Perhaps more importantly, those morning lows start bottoming out in the mid-60s instead of the low-50s and upper-40s, a clearer indication of approaching mugginess.
Now, the return of the rain is certain to occur when we're back into the workweek, but it still is a little fuzzy. The reason for that is the storm system bringing the rain is quite expansive and its core will be in Canada. It will be increasingly more difficult to tap/control inbound Gulf of Mexico moisture a couple thousand miles to the south, but it will happen to at least some degree. Here's a model comparison:
|GFS - Tuesday PM||CMC - Tuesday PM|
The Canadian (CMC) model holds the rain clusters together better, indicating a better run at thunderstorms in the mix, while the GFS is more nebulous about what it is trying to describe. For now, we can go with a case for the umbrella with a side order of "it's complicated" ;-)
One thing that is also interesting is that beyond these showers will come another fall-back in temperatures. Considering that a week of below-normal temperatures has been difficult to come by during the summer months (given the past several years), it will be more unusual to have a few more days of the same. But, the maps above certainly show a dip in temperature getting ready to flow back in behind the front (the thin black and red lines). Here's how it looks graphically:
|GFS - Temperatures - Tuesday thru Thursday (next week)|
The core of the cold air won't quite make it in here, but we'll get back to below-normal temperatures nonetheless. Have no fear though, we'll see that heat come back to finish off the month!
|Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking||
|Temperatures||HD Doppler Radar||Estimated Rainfall||Active Warnings|
|Click For Larger||Click For Interactive Radar||Click For Larger||Click For Larger|
Have a great day everyone!