Update 10/12 - Freeze Warnings Are Up... But Warmer Air Comes Soon

This morning will feature the coldest air thus far in the season, with Freeze Warnings in effect through the morning hours. Sunshine will help us out in the afternoon, and in the coming days we leave the cold behind for a while.

Update (10/12) - An update to start your day... Skies indeed are clearing out after the morning clouds. Hardly any showers were able to survive the trip early today, and we'll be dry right through the rest of the day.

With clearing skies, watch for the cooler air to fill in very quickly. Folks heading to the football game tonight had best be preparing for the chill. Same thing for the early soccer games tomorrow.

Beyond that, as we go forward into the weekend, it will be all about the warm-up. Here are some numbers for the weekend (off the latest GFS run):

GFS - Max Temps - Friday GFS - Max Temps - Saturday GFS - Max Temps - Sunday

Saturday in particular will be interesting, because of the "shake and bake" nature of the day, typical for a March (and October) day. We'll see temperatures go from the 30s to the 70s. Dress in layers ;-)

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Good Thursday morning to one and all.

Thank you for stopping by the weather blog today. Bundle up the kids for school this morning, and be sure to tend to the plants. This may well be the final nail in the coffin for the growing season (though if you make it through today you may have another week or two seeing the cold doesn't last).

The prime mechanism behind this morning's chill is the same as we'll see normally during these times: Radiational cooling. Crisp, clear skies and calm winds conspire to get the surface temperatures as cold as possible. As we've said in the past, the dew point temperature end up becoming a reliable method of estimating the morning low temperatures on such nights. Here's what we have based on the NAM:

NAM - Dewpoints - Thursday AM

A good chunk of freezing-and-below numbers will have many of us in that area to start the day today. Interior Ohio is the best spot for the upper 20s, but everyone should be considering what to do to protect their late-season fruits, vegetables, potted plants, and hanging plants.

Our fast jet stream continues to keep things moving right along this week, with the area of high pressure that we enjoy today already near the Atlantic seaboard by Friday morning.

HPC - Friday Morning

This puts us in a warmer air-flow pattern that turns our temperatures around-- especially in the morning. In fact, don't expect 30-degree mornings beyond today straight into the weekend and longer. There is a weak system off to the west that is eyeing our Friday, but this too will present a pittance of showers (like the front that came through yesterday). Here are the rainfall projections going right through the weekend:

HPC - Rainfall Projections - Through Sunday

 Yep, not much to see here. In fact, if this is the best the models can do on a multi-day rain forecast, some folks won't even get rained on at all when the next system comes in (Friday). Another weak system approaches on Sunday but more or less misses us to the north.

...And all we get are temperatures in the 70s (who's complaining?) Check out the 7-Day forecast image below for the good news!

Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking

Accuweather Radar

From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image

Activity Overview Storm Outlook Watches Potential Watches Storm Reports
Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active Warnings
Current Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active NWS Warnings
Click For Larger Click For Interactive Radar Click For Larger Click For Larger

Have a great day everyone!

-B

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